Will Venezuela's de facto leader change by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (202D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez be the | 2026-12-31 | 90.0% | — | $11K | C | 0x354c60…2478 | ||
| There be no | 2026-12-31 | 3.7% | — | $9.1K | C | 0x212201…9d60 | ||
| María Corina Machado be the | 2026-12-31 | 1.4% | — | $2.9K | C | 0xe4044a…5fd1 | ||
| Dinorah Figuera be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | — | $975 | C | 0x78e40a…81d5 | ||
| Edmundo González be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $692 | C | 0xd23288…67e1 | ||
| Nicolás Maduro be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $605 | C | 0x7590cb…36dd | ||
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $679 | C | 0x3c1312…0480 | ||
| Vladimir Padrino López be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $639 | C | 0x982635…294d | ||
| Donald Trump be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $684 | C | 0x4715da…ba96 | ||
| Pete Hegseth be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $816 | C | 0x23bd5a…bcb7 | ||
| Marco Rubio be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $658 | C | 0x937dc6…7921 | ||
| Dan Caine be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $767 | C | 0xe8edb8…ef7e | ||
| Frank Donovan be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $659 | C | 0xf72848…9d58 | ||
| Jorge Rodríguez be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $726 | C | 0xf57583…3e40 | ||
| Evan Pettus be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $836 | C | 0x17b662…3294 | ||
| Richard Grenell be the | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $691 | C | 0x540ead…9f9c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-12. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-62Z42CZWH7",
"slug": "venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026",
"question": "Will Venezuela's de facto leader change by the end of 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"venezuela-politics",
"leadership-transition",
"maduro-regime",
"2026-resolution",
"geopolitical-succession"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32601,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 13,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}