Will Venezuela's leader change by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 57 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 67.5% | $7.2K | $1.80M | C | 0x67f3f8…996f | ||
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 19.0% | $908 | $1.62M | C | 0xa01d48…e0f7 | ||
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 6.1% | $8.2K | $1.15M | C | 0x70187b…029d | ||
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | $123 | $1.02M | C | 0xcef0ea…2618 | ||
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | $4.9K | $1.21M | C | 0xf75226…3ef7 | ||
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $9.2K | $948K | C | 0xb122b2…4441 | ||
| Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | — | $925K | C | 0x746481…c26c | ||
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $7.6K | $1.81M | C | 0xd46931…c690 | ||
| Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $11K | $25.34M | C | 0x8063a2…0c0d | ||
| Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $734 | $684K | C | 0xbe6310…960d | ||
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $8.8K | $32.21M | C | 0x831493…49d4 | ||
| Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $7.5K | $2.43M | C | 0x86a2f1…0811 | ||
| Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $5.3K | $5.26M | C | 0x1dd770…45f9 | ||
| Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $4.8K | $3.71M | C | 0x1198bf…51f3 | ||
| Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $2.4K | $1.05M | C | 0x4c04cc…1eb2 | ||
| Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $6.5K | $8.74M | C | 0x4197bf…41b4 | ||
| Will Leader 2 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa6d2f2…49d0 | ||
| Will Leader 4 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6fc101…8b92 | ||
| Will Leader 6 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x72f733…a684 | ||
| Will Leader 8 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdac672…3424 | ||
| Will Leader 10 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa74da5…4625 | ||
| Will Leader 12 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x394f0f…a9b5 | ||
| Will Leader 14 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x08cec7…3ba9 | ||
| Will Leader 16 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc3b4e3…106b | ||
| Will Leader 18 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6d15f4…6c15 | ||
| Will Leader 20 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x555fac…3628 | ||
| Will Leader 22 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf42f17…5ca9 | ||
| Will Leader 24 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc10960…752d | ||
| Will Leader 26 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x248294…a906 | ||
| Will Leader 28 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xce2f73…2785 | ||
| Will Leader 30 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc75261…c558 | ||
| Will Leader 32 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x24618d…a7eb | ||
| Will Leader 34 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x889fe5…698e | ||
| Will Leader 36 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x666634…1d39 | ||
| Will Leader 38 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4ff644…1799 | ||
| Will Leader 40 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbc1921…87d8 | ||
| Will Leader 1 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8343a1…a1fe | ||
| Will Leader 3 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa7a131…12bb | ||
| Will Leader 5 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaf8efc…f696 | ||
| Will Leader 7 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x478aec…4ca7 | ||
| Will Leader 9 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7bec84…dae7 | ||
| Will Leader 11 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9fc475…48f0 | ||
| Will Leader 13 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x69953d…6b2f | ||
| Will Leader 15 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x39c5fa…d2d5 | ||
| Will Leader 17 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf399a3…f0ec | ||
| Will Leader 19 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5fab98…975f | ||
| Will Leader 21 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7856f1…68a3 | ||
| Will Leader 23 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x170781…0f1a | ||
| Will Leader 25 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcf38d7…2d32 | ||
| Will Leader 27 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3cdea4…39df | ||
| Will Leader 29 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6532c1…ed16 | ||
| Will Leader 31 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x69c10c…8b22 | ||
| Will Leader 33 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf49e2c…a6f5 | ||
| Will Leader 35 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9c0281…7a5c | ||
| Will Leader 37 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xda41ce…d809 | ||
| Will Leader 39 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9d291b…1ae5 | ||
| Will Other be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2f1f52…2937 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | un.org | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("venezuela-leader-end-of-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2JWJ7XPBR0",
"slug": "venezuela-leader-end-of-2026",
"question": "Will Venezuela's leader change by the end of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"venezuela-leadership",
"geopolitics",
"political-transition",
"2026",
"latin-america",
"authoritarian-succession"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 57,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 89908028,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "un.org",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}