Will the Vermont Governor election be won by the Democratic candidate? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republicans | — | 99.9% | — | $16K | A | 0x6664de…1485 | ||
| The Democrats | — | 0.2% | — | $10K | A | 0x5dacb3…9233 | ||
| Option B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x180315…c400 | ||
| Option D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4d80bd…30ff | ||
| Option F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x23426e…5356 | ||
| Option H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x039420…ec57 | ||
| Option J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x111a85…d202 | ||
| Option A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xed2c2f…952d | ||
| Option C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcc39c0…1cd0 | ||
| Option E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xefd989…b34c | ||
| Option G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x300e0f…9862 | ||
| Option I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x94d792…9c04 | ||
| Other | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7e423b…72ed |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Republicans stay heavy favorites in Vermont governor at 79% 79% · $27K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 79%, a strong favorite read in a race Vermont's GOP has held in recent cycles.
- 32% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, a meaningful single-session share for a state-level race.
- Paired activity with the Democratic Vermont governor contract (Spike 7) indicates fresh two-sided interest in this market.
- Resolves on the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
- Democrats stay a long shot in Vermont governor at 20% 20% · $22K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 20% for Vermont governor, a clear underdog stance despite the state's blue federal lean.
- 28% of all-time volume arrived in one session, paired with the Republican Vermont governor spike (Spike 4).
- The 20/79 split across both contracts reflects Vermont's split political identity: blue federally, recently GOP at the state level.
- Resolves on the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election outcome.
- Republicans betting picks up on Vermont governor upset 77% · $27K 24h
- Polymarket prices Vermont Republican gubernatorial win at 77%, a strong favorite in a state that has backed GOP governors recently.
- 24h volume of $27K is 32% of all-time contract activity, marking a meaningful single-day spike.
- Vermont's Republican incumbent history makes 77% defensible, but fresh volume suggests traders are re-evaluating the Democratic challenger's viability.
- Resolves on 2026 Vermont general election result.
- Democrats slip to long-shot odds in Vermont governor race 20% · $22K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democratic win at 20%, mirror of the Republican contract, confirming the GOP is a clear favorite at roughly 4-to-1.
- 24h volume of $22K is 28% of all-time activity, running in tandem with the Republican-side contract spike.
- Simultaneous volume across both sides of the Vermont governor market suggests active two-sided price discovery, not one-directional flow.
- Resolves on 2026 Vermont general election certified result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/vermont-governor-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/vermont-governor-winner-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("vermont-governor-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-R85JKZZ4R6",
"slug": "vermont-governor-winner-2026",
"question": "Will the Vermont Governor election be won by the Democratic candidate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-governor-races",
"vermont",
"2026-elections",
"state-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 25870,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}