Will the Washington 3rd District Democratic primary winner be determined by August 4, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (12D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Braun | 2026-08-04 | 85.0% | $1.9K | $9.5K | C | 0x62e42b…3ab9 | ||
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 2026-08-04 | 13.0% | $115 | $1.5K | C | 0xd450e0…af68 | ||
| Troy Rasband | 2026-08-04 | 1.3% | $89 | $366 | C | 0xaba8cb…a311 | ||
| John P. Roco | 2026-08-04 | 1.1% | $104 | $261 | C | 0x944543…3844 | ||
| Brent Hennrich | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $104 | $1.0K | C | 0x05e138…26f1 | ||
| Lawrence Kellogg | 2026-08-04 | 1.0% | $104 | $320 | C | 0x1717cc…66bc | ||
| John Saulie-Rohman | 2026-08-04 | 0.5% | $104 | $254 | C | 0x19e97e…9e4d | ||
| Antony Barran | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | $104 | $332 | C | 0xb51d97…f283 | ||
| Austin Braswell | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | $99 | $241 | C | 0x5b3f7e…ed99 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5d6131…590b | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb399fc…0577 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1351a1…8e38 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1ac324…659b | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd7c035…35aa | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa9eb64…7bfb | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xca64d3…eb2b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate earns the most votes in the WA-03 non-partisan primary election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the State of Washington.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
- the State of Washington from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/wa-03-primary-first-place-20260706195611094/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/wa-03-primary-first-place-20260706195611094 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("wa-03-primary-first-place-20260706195611094") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DYB2XLWX26",
"slug": "wa-03-primary-first-place-20260706195611094",
"question": "Will the Washington 3rd District Democratic primary winner be determined by August 4, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"washington-state",
"primary-election",
"us-house"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13806,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 76,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the State of Washington",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}