What price will Bitcoin reach by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2025-11 – 2027-01 ]
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 42 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reach $90,000 | 2025-11-29 | 99.9% | — | $23K | A | 0xeea323…e51c | ||
| Dip to $85,000 | 2025-12-01 | 100.0% | — | $12K | A | 0xb31079…e8cd | ||
| Dip to $75,000 | 2026-02-02 | 99.9% | — | $1.12M | A | 0xf2591a…0d55 | ||
| Dip to $65,000 | 2026-02-05 | 99.9% | — | $1.54M | A | 0xc72ad4…c533 | ||
| Dip to $60,000 | 2026-02-06 | 99.9% | — | $44K | A | 0x64838f…ee4f | ||
| Reach $70,000 | 2026-02-07 | 99.9% | — | $44K | A | 0x954c7b…4300 | ||
| Reach $75,000 | 2026-03-17 | 99.9% | — | — | A | 0x5e27b3…8e41 | ||
| Reach $80,000 | 2026-05-04 | 99.9% | — | $776K | A | 0x6e1fbd…5a55 | ||
| Reach $65,000 | 2027-01-01 | 94.3% | $1.2K | $5.8K | A | 0x1346f7…a6b6 | ||
| Dip to $60,000 | 2027-01-01 | 88.0% | $5.4K | $13K | A | 0xa157e5…47d6 | ||
| Reach $70,000 | 2027-01-01 | 75.0% | $210 | $1.8K | A | 0x7b9072…daa8 | ||
| Dip to $55,000 | 2027-01-01 | 67.0% | $3.1K | $3.80M | A | 0x752fa6…8a8c | ||
| Reach $75,000 | 2027-01-01 | 64.0% | — | $287 | A | 0x84fdc3…4fdf | ||
| Dip to $50,000 | 2027-01-01 | 54.0% | $1.9K | $1.56M | A | 0xce3c54…2c56 | ||
| Dip to $45,000 | 2027-01-01 | 42.0% | $1.4K | $3.01M | A | 0x024b68…6fee | ||
| Reach $80,000 | 2027-01-01 | 34.0% | $59 | $284 | A | 0xc564e4…ea96 | ||
| Dip to $40,000 | 2027-01-01 | 31.0% | $3.5K | $866K | A | 0x1e5564…baa2 | ||
| Reach $90,000 | 2027-01-01 | 27.0% | $6.1K | $938K | A | 0xbb379a…f50e | ||
| Reach $95,000 | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | $50 | $170 | A | 0xacec7e…a784 | ||
| Reach $85,000 | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | — | $922 | A | 0x123938…fc93 | ||
| Dip to $35,000 | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | $302 | $2.34M | A | 0x2745c3…a2a2 | ||
| Reach $100,000 | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $17K | $1.92M | A | 0xdaa486…990f | ||
| Reach $110,000 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $4.6K | $1.06M | A | 0x63eaf4…7b01 | ||
| Dip to $30,000 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $602 | $525K | A | 0x903a13…69ef | ||
| Reach $120,000 | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $13K | $889K | A | 0xf9b6b5…cfe4 | ||
| Dip to $25,000 | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $838 | $913K | A | 0xe326d1…e775 | ||
| Reach $130,000 | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $1.2K | $1.01M | A | 0x885a6a…a859 | ||
| Reach $140,000 | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $411 | $888K | A | 0xf0a4c0…f15e | ||
| Dip to $15,000 | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $787 | $4.82M | A | 0xa885bf…3713 | ||
| Dip to $20,000 | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $425 | $395K | A | 0x23fb92…69fc | ||
| Reach $150,000 | 2027-01-01 | 4.9% | $542 | $951K | A | 0xa7b594…1cda | ||
| Dip to $10,000 | 2027-01-01 | 4.8% | $883 | $655K | A | 0xd8a584…7d29 | ||
| Dip to $5,000 | 2027-01-01 | 4.2% | $1.9K | $623K | A | 0xe681a6…3469 | ||
| Reach $160,000 | 2027-01-01 | 3.5% | $759 | $512K | A | 0x472c90…54b0 | ||
| Reach $170,000 | 2027-01-01 | 3.4% | $4.6K | $324K | A | 0x9affeb…4234 | ||
| Reach $180,000 | 2027-01-01 | 2.4% | $639 | $430K | A | 0x799c35…547f | ||
| Reach $190,000 | 2027-01-01 | 2.3% | $726 | $597K | A | 0xe71b9d…e115 | ||
| Reach $200,000 | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | $13K | $1.79M | A | 0xac32e7…68cd | ||
| Reach $250,000 | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | $8.1K | $5.14M | A | 0x6fefc0…1092 | ||
| Reach $1,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.6% | $47K | $1.61M | A | 0xa7d7ed…1c47 | ||
| Reach $500,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.5% | $12K | $1.31M | A | 0xf3519e…6116 | ||
| Dip to $60,000 | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x479147…f61f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT sources (3) · single authority
- binance.com venue-listed
- Binance source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2027-01-01 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-04 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-03-17 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-02-07 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-02-06 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-02-05 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-02-02 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2025-12-01 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2025-11-29 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (9 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Bitcoin $80K by year-end faces heavy fade pressure at one-in-three 33% · $29K 24h
- Polymarket prices 33% odds Bitcoin retraces to $80K by December 31, 2026, a bearish lean from current levels.
- 24h volume of $29,213 is 27% of all-time handle, reflecting a meaningful but non-climactic positioning wave.
- Fresh capital appears to be hedging or fading a drawdown scenario amid mid-July macro crosscurrents.
- Resolves YES only if BTC closes at or below $80K on December 31, 2026.
- Bitcoin $85K by year-end sits deep in tail-risk territory 21% · $26K 24h
- 21% price tags an $85K Bitcoin by December 31 as a low-probability, tail-risk scenario.
- Polymarket records $25,725 in 24h, 35% of all-time volume, marking acute fresh attention.
- With BTC well below $85K today, surge may reflect hedgers or speculators opening long-shot positions.
- Contract resolves December 31, 2026; ~5.5 months of runway for a major rally required.
- Heavy flows stack into $80K Bitcoin year-end recovery bet 29% · $26K 24h
- 29% price reflects meaningful but minority odds that Bitcoin reclaims $80K before year-end.
- $26,302 traded in 24h, 33% of all-time contract volume, indicates a sharp surge in positioning.
- Paired spike with the $85K contract suggests systematic layering across Bitcoin recovery thresholds.
- Resolution December 31, 2026; current BTC price well below strike, requiring sustained upside.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2S263KKBP2",
"slug": "what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027",
"question": "What price will Bitcoin reach by the end of 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"bitcoin",
"crypto-prices",
"price-prediction",
"2027-resolution",
"crypto",
"btc-valuation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 42,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 42439724,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Binance",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "binance.com",
"url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Binance",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}