What price will Bitcoin reach by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2025-11 – 2027-01 ]

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?

polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 44 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Reach $90,000	2025-11-29	99.9%	—	$23K	C	`0xeea323…e51c`
Dip to $85,000	2025-12-01	100.0%	—	$12K	C	`0xb31079…e8cd`
Dip to $75,000	2026-02-02	99.9%	—	$1.12M	C	`0xf2591a…0d55`
Dip to $65,000	2026-02-05	99.9%	—	$1.54M	C	`0xc72ad4…c533`
Dip to $60,000	2026-02-06	99.9%	—	$44K	C	`0x64838f…ee4f`
Reach $70,000	2026-02-07	99.9%	—	$44K	C	`0x954c7b…4300`
Reach $75,000	2026-03-17	99.9%	—	—	C	`0x5e27b3…8e41`
Reach $80,000	2026-05-04	99.9%	—	$776K	C	`0x6e1fbd…5a55`
Reach $65,000	2026-06-15	99.9%	—	$15K	C	`0x1346f7…a6b6`
Dip to $60,000	2026-06-24	99.9%	—	$137K	C	`0xa157e5…47d6`
Reach $65,000	2026-07-15	99.9%	—	$42K	C	`0xda77b0…03c8`
Reach $80,000	2027-01-01	100.0%	$609	$223K	C	`0xc564e4…ea96`
Reach $85,000	2027-01-01	72.0%	$321	$157K	C	`0x123938…fc93`
Reach $70,000	2027-01-01	69.0%	$1.2K	$180K	C	`0x7b9072…daa8`
Dip to $55,000	2027-01-01	56.0%	$25K	$4.95M	C	`0x752fa6…8a8c`
Reach $75,000	2027-01-01	51.0%	$518	$130K	C	`0x84fdc3…4fdf`
Reach $95,000	2027-01-01	37.0%	$14K	$121K	C	`0xacec7e…a784`
Dip to $50,000	2027-01-01	37.0%	$5.0K	$2.59M	C	`0xce3c54…2c56`
Dip to $45,000	2027-01-01	25.0%	$3.4K	$3.99M	C	`0x024b68…6fee`
Dip to $60,000	2027-01-01	23.0%	$74	$36K	C	`0x6c8bc8…60ba`
Reach $90,000	2027-01-01	16.0%	$5.4K	$1.29M	C	`0xbb379a…f50e`
Dip to $40,000	2027-01-01	15.0%	$13K	$1.50M	C	`0x1e5564…baa2`
Reach $100,000	2027-01-01	9.0%	$7.3K	$2.38M	C	`0xdaa486…990f`
Dip to $35,000	2027-01-01	9.0%	$6.3K	$2.71M	C	`0x2745c3…a2a2`
Reach $110,000	2027-01-01	7.0%	$470	$1.21M	C	`0x63eaf4…7b01`
Dip to $30,000	2027-01-01	7.0%	$6.5K	$693K	C	`0x903a13…69ef`
Reach $140,000	2027-01-01	4.5%	$2.0K	$1.03M	C	`0xf0a4c0…f15e`
Reach $120,000	2027-01-01	4.0%	$324	$1.11M	C	`0xf9b6b5…cfe4`
Dip to $25,000	2027-01-01	4.0%	$11K	$1.15M	C	`0xe326d1…e775`
Dip to $15,000	2027-01-01	4.0%	$112	$4.92M	C	`0xa885bf…3713`
Reach $130,000	2027-01-01	3.5%	$3.0K	$1.10M	C	`0x885a6a…a859`
Dip to $20,000	2027-01-01	3.5%	$126	$506K	C	`0x23fb92…69fc`
Reach $170,000	2027-01-01	2.8%	$1.8K	$352K	C	`0x9affeb…4234`
Reach $150,000	2027-01-01	2.5%	$3.9K	$1.05M	C	`0xa7b594…1cda`
Dip to $10,000	2027-01-01	2.4%	$251	$831K	C	`0xd8a584…7d29`
Reach $190,000	2027-01-01	2.3%	$2.2K	$713K	C	`0xe71b9d…e115`
Reach $180,000	2027-01-01	2.3%	—	$473K	C	`0x799c35…547f`
Reach $160,000	2027-01-01	2.1%	$1.8K	$549K	C	`0x472c90…54b0`
Reach $200,000	2027-01-01	2.0%	$230	$1.93M	C	`0xac32e7…68cd`
Reach $250,000	2027-01-01	1.8%	$1.6K	$5.36M	C	`0x6fefc0…1092`
Dip to $5,000	2027-01-01	1.8%	$48	$787K	C	`0xe681a6…3469`
Reach $500,000	2027-01-01	1.3%	$79	$1.52M	C	`0xf3519e…6116`
Reach $1,000,000	2027-01-01	1.0%	$27K	$2.12M	C	`0xa7d7ed…1c47`
Dip to $60,000	2027-01-01	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x479147…f61f`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 44 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

sources (3)

binance.com committed source Binance from rules text https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT from rules text

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	polymarket	`2026-08-24`	`100%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-08-25T08:37:37+00:00 volume-spike
A $95K Bitcoin by year-end stays a coin-flip low 40% · $81K 24h
- Polymarket prices Bitcoin reaching $95K by Dec 31, 2026 at 40%, leaning against the threshold.
- 24h volume of $81K is 27% of all-time, indicating a meaningful re-engagement with the contract.
- With BTC currently near or above $80K, the $95K level implies roughly a 19% additional rally, markets say it's unlikely but live.
- Resolves Dec 31, 2026; four months of runway keeps both sides of the trade open.
2026-08-22T08:24:03+00:00 volume-spike
Fresh volume returns to the BTC $60K dip-by-year-end bet 36% · $88K 24h
- Polymarket prices 36%, meaningful downside risk priced but not the base case.
- 24h volume $88K is 36% of all-time, a notable single-day share for a multi-month contract.
- Renewed attention to downside tail hedges amid concurrent heavy BTC month-end trading.
- Resolves December 31, 2026.
2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00 volume-spike
Bitcoin reaching $85K by year-end stays the base case 59% · $76K 24h
- At 59%, Polymarket prices a year-end $85K Bitcoin as the slight favorite, consensus leans bullish but not confidently.
- 24h volume of $76K is 26% of all-time; less concentrated than the August strikes but meaningful for a longer-dated claim.
- With Bitcoin already near the $80K range, the $85K target requires only a modest additional rally through December.
- Resolves Dec 31, 2026; complements the August BTC ladder by extending the market's directional outlook four months.
2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00 volume-spike
A BTC drop to $60K by year-end is priced at 37% 37% · $48K 24h
- At 37%, Polymarket assigns meaningful but minority odds that Bitcoin revisits $60K before year-end, a notable downside risk premium.
- 24h volume of $48K is 30% of all-time; steady fresh interest on the bearish tail contract alongside bullish BTC activity.
- Paired with 59% odds on $85K by year-end, the market simultaneously prices material upside and a substantial downside path.
- Resolves Dec 31; the $60K level represents roughly a 25% drawdown from current levels, a historically plausible BTC correction.
2026-08-20T08:33:38+00:00 volume-spike
A Bitcoin dip to $60K by year-end draws heavy two-sided flow 52% · $57K 24h
- Polymarket prices 52%, the market is nearly deadlocked on whether BTC revisits $60K before 2027.
- 24h volume $57K is 51% of all-time, meaning today alone matches all prior trading in this contract.
- Coin-flip odds at peak-ever volume implies a fresh macro trigger or BTC spot move catalyzed the rush.
- Resolves December 31, 2026, four-plus months of tail risk remain.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2S263KKBP2",
  "slug": "what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027",
  "question": "What price will Bitcoin reach by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "bitcoin",
    "crypto-prices",
    "crypto",
    "price-prediction",
    "2027",
    "btc-usd"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 44,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 51389310,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 81,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_committed_secondhand"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "binance.com",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "binance.com",
      "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Binance",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →