What price will Ethereum reach by 2026? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2027-01 ]

Will Ethereum dip to $600 by December 31, 2026?

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 26 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Dip to $2,500	2026-01-31	99.9%	—	$372K	A	`0x873592…c851`
Dip to $2,000	2026-02-05	99.9%	—	$183K	A	`0x5a183c…649a`
Dip to $1,500	2027-01-01	85.0%	$187	$1.21M	A	`0xcf25cc…9780`
Reach $2,250	2027-01-01	79.0%	$109	$249	A	`0xc7daed…c458`
Reach $2,000	2027-01-01	73.0%	—	$355	A	`0x0d4126…fb6a`
Reach $1,750	2027-01-01	72.0%	—	$27	A	`0xe12dfb…add3`
Reach $2,750	2027-01-01	67.0%	$4	$119	A	`0x4f7001…f959`
Dip to $1,000	2027-01-01	27.0%	$732	$902K	A	`0xacb333…e369`
Dip to $1,250	2027-01-01	26.0%	$2	$258	A	`0x766996…229d`
Reach $3,000	2027-01-01	21.0%	—	$143	A	`0xaf8816…357d`
Dip to $700	2027-01-01	19.0%	—	$60	A	`0x9edfa7…4f67`
Dip to $800	2027-01-01	15.0%	$23K	$866K	A	`0x717672…1612`
Reach $3,500	2027-01-01	12.0%	$591	$390K	A	`0x42945e…9dfc`
Reach $4,500	2027-01-01	9.0%	$1.5K	$220K	A	`0xa3143f…7e21`
Reach $4,000	2027-01-01	9.0%	$153	$204K	A	`0x9775cd…621c`
Reach $5,000	2027-01-01	8.0%	$790	$388K	A	`0x1c4fd6…0a13`
Reach $5,500	2027-01-01	7.0%	$520	$209K	A	`0xb75b8c…aac8`
Reach $6,000	2027-01-01	6.0%	$930	$289K	A	`0x6132cc…918a`
Reach $6,500	2027-01-01	5.0%	$1.1K	$187K	A	`0x0f0499…3a80`
Reach $7,000	2027-01-01	3.0%	$425	$146K	A	`0x4ee2c6…4de0`
Reach $7,500	2027-01-01	2.9%	$12K	$161K	A	`0x4fc872…aaa1`
Reach $8,000	2027-01-01	2.6%	$6.2K	$239K	A	`0xac0b43…33c8`
Dip to $500	2027-01-01	2.6%	—	—	A	`0x7f1bdc…77b7`
Reach $10,000	2027-01-01	1.5%	$1.5K	$507K	A	`0x201f51…a441`
Dip to $600	2027-01-01	—	—	—	A	`0x72353e…68d2`
Reach $2,500	2027-01-01	—	—	$24	A	`0xc68ab4…aa72`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 26 markets · share this text

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT

sources (3) · single authority

binance.com venue-listed
Binance source of record from rules text · editorial
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
closed	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	polymarket	`2026-02-05`	`—`
closed	Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026?	polymarket	`2026-01-31`	`—`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-07-21T10:22:52+00:00 volume-spike
Traders stack tail-risk odds on ETH fading to $1,250 26% · $189K 24h
- 26% prices a meaningful but minority probability that Ethereum revisits $1,250 by year-end.
- Polymarket sees $189K in 24h, 54% of the contract's all-time volume in a single session.
- Fresh inflow at 26% suggests macro or crypto-specific stress concerns are prompting hedging activity.
- Resolves December 31, 2026 on Ethereum spot price.
2026-07-20T10:47:50+00:00 volume-spike
Heavy flows test Ethereum's $1,250 downside by year-end 24% · $58K 24h
- Polymarket prices a 24% chance ETH touches $1,250, implying meaningful tail-risk of near-halving from current levels.
- 24h volume of $58K represents 37% of all-time contract volume, a concentrated single-session capital deployment.
- Mid-summer positioning suggests desks are hedging or pressing a bearish macro/crypto thesis into H2 2026.
- Contract resolves Dec 31, 2026, five months of runway keeps the probability live through rate, regulatory, and risk-off catalysts.
2026-07-19T09:49:33+00:00 volume-spike
Traders stack ETH downside hedges targeting $1,250 by year-end 26% · $53K 24h
- 26% price implies meaningful but minority conviction that Ethereum revisits deep 2026 lows by year-end.
- $52.7K in 24h is 53% of all-time volume, majority of lifetime interest concentrated in this session.
- Fresh hedging activity suggests macro or protocol-specific risk now being priced into tail scenarios.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; current level leaves roughly five months for a significant drawdown.
2026-07-16T17:21:12+00:00 volume-spike
Tail risk stacks around ETH revisiting $1,250 by December 24% · $17K 24h
- 24% implies meaningful but sub-consensus probability the market prices a deep ETH drawdown through year-end.
- $17K in 24 hours represents 42% of all-time volume, a disproportionate single-day concentration for a still-open contract.
- Fresh attention to a $1,250 floor, roughly a severe bear-case level, suggests hedging interest re-entering on macro or crypto-specific stress concerns.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; five-plus months of runway keeps tail risk alive for options-desk correlation trades.
2026-07-16T10:04:38+00:00 volume-spike
ETH bear hedge builds around a $1,250 year-end floor test 24% · $16K 24h
- At 24%, market assigns meaningful tail-risk probability to Ethereum revisiting $1,250 before year-end 2026.
- Polymarket recorded $16.2K in 24h volume, 41% of all-time, concentrating fresh attention on downside hedges.
- Renewed ETH bear positioning may reflect macro rate uncertainty, L2 fee compression, or broader crypto risk-off rotation.
- Contract resolves December 31, 2026; six months of runway keeps downside scenario live for structured hedgers.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-before-2027/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-before-2027`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("what-price-will-ethereum-hit-before-2027")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DSZVH8N0R8",
  "slug": "what-price-will-ethereum-hit-before-2027",
  "question": "What price will Ethereum reach by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "ethereum",
    "crypto-prices",
    "price-prediction",
    "2027",
    "evm-blockchain"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 26,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 6480503,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 91,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Binance",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "binance.com",
      "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Binance",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →