Will the S&P 500 (SPY) reach a specific target price by June 2026? [ resolves 2026-07-01 (28D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $680 | 2026-07-01 | 9.0% | $298 | $355 | B | 0xc30802…41a8 | ||
| ≤ $690 | 2026-07-01 | 14.0% | $100 | $213 | B | 0xdac5b9…49c4 | ||
| ≤ $700 | 2026-07-01 | 18.0% | $647 | $1.1K | B | 0xfe7abd…b018 | ||
| ≤ $710 | 2026-07-01 | 20.0% | $262 | $4.1K | B | 0x260ce0…081c | ||
| ≤ $720 | 2026-07-01 | 25.0% | $380 | $1.2K | B | 0x830bc6…d735 | ||
| ≤ $730 | 2026-07-01 | 35.0% | $2.9K | $6.4K | B | 0x08e5b7…bce1 | ||
| ≤ $740 | 2026-07-01 | 55.0% | $1.1K | $3.4K | B | 0x564677…082d | ||
| ≥ $750 | 2026-07-01 | 99.9% | — | $11K | B | 0xaabfe6…cf58 | ||
| ≥ $760 | 2026-07-01 | 99.9% | $1.5K | $2.7K | B | 0x7958f1…bd25 | ||
| ≥ $770 | 2026-07-01 | 58.0% | $6.4K | $7.1K | B | 0x04a383…50c3 | ||
| ≥ $780 | 2026-07-01 | 30.0% | $3.3K | $4.5K | B | 0x17fc0c…ae98 | ||
| ≥ $790 | 2026-07-01 | 13.0% | $3.5K | $3.8K | B | 0xc5acfa…3b3d | ||
| ≥ $800 | 2026-07-01 | 7.0% | $127 | $127 | B | 0x9bc90e…e01a | ||
| ≥ $810 | 2026-07-01 | 5.0% | $15 | $166 | B | 0xef2cae…3994 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-june-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-price-will-spy-hit-in-june-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-price-will-spy-hit-in-june-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9GT8WF41Q3",
"slug": "what-price-will-spy-hit-in-june-2026",
"question": "Will the S&P 500 (SPY) reach a specific target price by June 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"equities",
"sp500",
"price-threshold",
"june-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 45670,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}