Will the Federal Reserve's policy rate reach or exceed a specific level before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

polymarket 21 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	99.9%	—	$9.0K	A	`0xe7091c…c8cc`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	32.0%	$346	$74K	A	`0x70d8f4…f280`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	12.0%	$461	$266K	A	`0xdab002…4256`
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027	2026-12-31	10.4%	$80	$31K	A	`0x69f729…6e63`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	8.0%	—	$1.9K	A	`0x803d10…3bff`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	6.9%	—	$18K	A	`0xbfc961…f99f`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	5.7%	—	$101K	A	`0x4e15f0…00ba`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	5.6%	—	$197K	A	`0xaa6145…d4c2`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	5.3%	$1.2K	$323K	A	`0x2bb429…0107`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	5.0%	—	$9.6K	A	`0x0c3753…aff9`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	5.0%	—	$125K	A	`0x8be4f9…a4a3`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	5.0%	—	$32K	A	`0x0bbbcc…0c81`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	4.7%	—	$1.9K	A	`0x9ee556…e02b`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	4.5%	$40	$15K	A	`0x3983cd…5b5d`
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027	2026-12-31	4.1%	—	$16K	A	`0x4f330f…8650`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	4.0%	—	$27K	A	`0xe8a621…d448`
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027	2026-12-31	3.6%	—	$48K	A	`0x360247…2c40`
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027	2026-12-31	3.2%	—	$13K	A	`0x0a9571…e7bb`
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027	2026-12-31	3.2%	—	$393	A	`0x58c9cd…5b83`
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027	2026-12-31	2.8%	—	$77K	A	`0x784b64…ca78`
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027	2026-12-31	2.6%	$81	$141K	A	`0x728246…2c04`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	Fomc	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 21 markets · share this text

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

recent wire items

2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00 vs-benchmark-drift
Fed lower bound ≤2.75% before 2027: 6%; rate at 3.75%
- Polymarket prices only 6% chance the Fed lower bound reaches 2.75% or below before 2027.
- Fed funds upper bound (FRED) currently 3.75%, implying lower bound near 3.5%.
- Market implies cuts of 75bps+ from current lower bound are very unlikely before year-end.
- Resolves on FRED Fed funds lower bound before January 2027.
2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00 vs-benchmark-drift
Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027: 3%; rate at 3.75%
- Polymarket prices only 3% chance the upper bound reaches 5.25% or higher before 2027.
- Fed funds upper bound (FRED) currently at 3.75%.
- Market implies a 150bps+ net hike cycle restarting before year-end is nearly impossible.
- Resolves on FRED Fed funds upper bound reading before January 2027.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
  "slug": "what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve's policy rate reach or exceed a specific level before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "fed-rates",
    "economic-policy",
    "monetary-policy",
    "us-economy"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 21,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1527160,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Fomc",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →