Will the Fed Rate hit 0% before 2027? [ resolves 2025-12 – 2026-12 ]

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 21 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Lower bound reach 3.5% or lower	2025-12-12	99.9%	—	$9.0K	A	`0xe7091c…c8cc`
Upper bound reach 4.25% or higher	2026-12-31	24.7%	$319	$37K	A	`0x69f729…6e63`
Lower bound reach 3.25% or lower	2026-12-31	20.0%	$15	$75K	A	`0x70d8f4…f280`
Upper bound reach 4.5% or higher	2026-12-31	9.5%	$233	$18K	A	`0x4f330f…8650`
Lower bound reach 2.0% or lower	2026-12-31	6.9%	—	$18K	A	`0xbfc961…f99f`
Lower bound reach 3.0% or lower	2026-12-31	6.0%	$24	$270K	A	`0xdab002…4256`
Lower bound reach 1.25% or lower	2026-12-31	5.4%	$1	$1.9K	A	`0x803d10…3bff`
Upper bound reach 4.75% or higher	2026-12-31	5.0%	$198	$78K	A	`0x784b64…ca78`
Lower bound reach 1.75% or lower	2026-12-31	5.0%	$1	$9.7K	A	`0x0c3753…aff9`
Lower bound reach 2.25% or lower	2026-12-31	5.0%	—	$32K	A	`0x0bbbcc…0c81`
Lower bound reach 0.25% or lower	2026-12-31	4.9%	$45	$125K	A	`0x8be4f9…a4a3`
Lower bound reach 1.0% or lower	2026-12-31	4.7%	—	$1.9K	A	`0x9ee556…e02b`
Lower bound reach 0.5% or lower	2026-12-31	4.6%	—	$101K	A	`0x4e15f0…00ba`
Lower bound reach 2.5% or lower	2026-12-31	4.5%	$4	$198K	A	`0xaa6145…d4c2`
Lower bound reach 0% or lower	2026-12-31	4.4%	$2	$16K	A	`0x3983cd…5b5d`
Upper bound reach 5.0% or higher	2026-12-31	4.0%	$5	$15K	A	`0x0a9571…e7bb`
Lower bound reach 1.5% or lower	2026-12-31	4.0%	$1	$27K	A	`0xe8a621…d448`
Upper bound reach 5.5% or higher	2026-12-31	3.6%	$40	$48K	A	`0x360247…2c40`
Lower bound reach 0.75% or lower	2026-12-31	3.2%	—	$393	A	`0x58c9cd…5b83`
Upper bound reach 5.25% or higher	2026-12-31	2.6%	$22	$142K	A	`0x728246…2c04`
Lower bound reach 2.75% or lower	2026-12-31	1.8%	$545	$329K	A	`0x2bb429…0107`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 21 markets · share this text

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

sources (3) · single authority

federalreserve.gov venue-listed
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text · editorial
Federal Reserve source of record from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
closed	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?	polymarket	`2025-12-12`	`—`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-06-04T11:16:22+00:00 vs-benchmark-drift
Rate path to 5.25 percent detaches sharply from FRED baseline 3% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75%
- Polymarket prices 3% chance the Fed's upper bound reaches 5.25% or higher before 2027.
- FRED benchmark: Fed funds upper bound currently at 3.75%.
- Market implies the Fed would need to hike 150 bps from here, seen as near-impossible.
- Resolves against FRED Fed funds upper bound before January 2027.
2026-06-04T11:16:22+00:00 vs-benchmark-drift
Fed lower bound at 2.75 percent trails well behind FRED rate 5% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75%
- Polymarket prices 5% chance the Fed's lower bound reaches 2.75% or below before 2027.
- FRED benchmark: Fed funds upper bound currently 3.75%, implying lower bound near 3.5%.
- Market implies cuts of at least 75 bps are highly unlikely before year-end from current level.
- Resolves against FRED Fed funds lower bound before January 2027.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
  "slug": "what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the Fed Rate hit 0% before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "fed-rates",
    "economic-policy",
    "monetary-policy",
    "us-economy"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 21,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1550739,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 93,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "federalreserve.gov",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Reserve",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →