Will Gold (GC) hit $2000 by end of December 2024? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $5,000 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 2183852 | ||
| ≥ $6,000 | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | $3.0K | $173K | C | 0x75546d…345d | ||
| ≥ $7,000 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $587 | $57K | C | 0x284e9f…6c66 | ||
| ≥ $8,000 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $770 | $25K | C | 0x90e5f1…9f4a | ||
| ≥ $10,000 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $44 | $28K | C | 0x63f5b6…4072 | ||
| ≥ $12,000 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $6 | $42K | C | 0xd004d5…f87f | ||
| ≥ $15,000 | 2026-12-31 | 4.4% | $1.6K | $31K | C | 0xc44228…382e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-gold-gc-hit-by-end-of-december/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-gold-gc-hit-by-end-of-december.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-gold-gc-hit-by-end-of-december") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S8YXVVG6F4",
"slug": "what-will-gold-gc-hit-by-end-of-december",
"question": "Will Gold (GC) hit $2000 by end of December 2024?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"commodities",
"gold-futures",
"price-level",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 355897,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}