Will a major event occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (58D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI | 2026-07-31 | 99.9% | — | $185K | C | 0xc829ed…62ff | ||
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI | 2026-07-31 | 54.0% | — | $1.68M | C | 0x9c1a95…5763 | ||
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI | 2026-07-31 | 53.0% | $183 | $657K | C | 0x0ea800…77a2 | ||
| New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI | 2026-07-31 | 52.0% | $174 | $739K | C | 0x50ddb9…3dcc | ||
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI | 2026-07-31 | 51.0% | $1.0K | $796K | C | 0x1fad72…72be | ||
| Trump out as President before GTA VI | 2026-07-31 | 51.0% | $942 | $663K | C | 0x84f8b7…66e9 | ||
| Another pandemic before GTA VI | 2026-07-31 | 51.0% | $363 | $15K | C | 0x71b1cc…b59e | ||
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $667 | $1.85M | C | 0x7b49b9…0f11 | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000 | 2026-07-31 | 49.3% | $2.4K | $4.45M | C | 0xbb57cc…89d2 | ||
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI | 2026-07-31 | 48.0% | $4.1K | $11.52M | C | 0x32b09f…2f4c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-happen-before-gta-vi") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
"slug": "what-will-happen-before-gta-vi",
"question": "Will a major event occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"gta-vi",
"before-event",
"prediction-market",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 22549834,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 12,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}