Will a significant event occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-07 ]
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire | 2026-05-09 | 54.0% | — | $1.68M | C | 0x9c1a95…5763 | ||
| Will Drake release Iceman | 2026-05-15 | 99.9% | — | $185K | C | 0xc829ed…62ff | ||
| Will GPT-6 be released | 2026-07-31 | 54.0% | $22 | $661K | C | 0x0ea800…77a2 | ||
| New Playboi Carti Album | 2026-07-31 | 51.0% | $140 | $740K | C | 0x50ddb9…3dcc | ||
| New Rihanna Album | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $1.0K | $825K | C | 0x1fad72…72be | ||
| Trump out as President | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $157 | $665K | C | 0x84f8b7…66e9 | ||
| Will China invades Taiwan | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $466 | $1.86M | C | 0x7b49b9…0f11 | ||
| Another pandemic | 2026-07-31 | 50.0% | $4 | $16K | C | 0x71b1cc…b59e | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000 | 2026-07-31 | 49.2% | $897 | $4.46M | C | 0xbb57cc…89d2 | ||
| Will Jesus Christ return | 2026-07-31 | 49.0% | $9.2K | $11.57M | C | 0x32b09f…2f4c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible sources from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-05-15 | — |
| closed | Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | polymarket | 2026-05-09 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-happen-before-gta-vi") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G6SC3C46M8",
"slug": "what-will-happen-before-gta-vi",
"question": "Will a significant event occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"gta-vi",
"before-event",
"prediction-market",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 22660468,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible sources",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}