Will Karoline Leavitt make a statement during the next White House press briefing? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]

Will Leavitt say "Administration" 10+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 22 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will no press briefing air by July 31	2026-07-23	—	$95	$95	C	`0x64e1b7…be51`
Will Leavitt say "Congress" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	99.9%	$396	$396	C	`0x0f0b74…5806`
Will Leavitt say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	99.9%	$387	$387	C	`0x6d6106…1edc`
Will Leavitt say "Illegal" or "Illegals" during the next White House Press…	2026-07-23	99.9%	$527	$527	C	`0xeff477…580c`
Will Leavitt say "Alien" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	99.9%	$395	$395	C	`0x76e3ab…40d0`
Will Leavitt say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next White House Press…	2026-07-23	—	$143	$143	C	`0xc62d1c…6c80`
Will Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	—	$146	$146	C	`0xf6c0c8…d16b`
Will Leavitt say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the next White House Press…	2026-07-23	—	$102	$102	C	`0x4f6f64…11d9`
Will Leavitt say "Ceasefire" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	—	$148	$148	C	`0xb81f55…2470`
Will Leavitt say "Mexico" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	—	$142	$142	C	`0xa8b19c…78f3`
Will Leavitt say "Madness" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	—	$214	$214	C	`0xf08322…1491`
Will Leavitt say "Commander in Chief" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	—	$127	$127	C	`0x2eb2f2…70df`
Will Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during the next White House Press…	2026-07-23	99.9%	$352	$352	C	`0x5d1157…a861`
Will Leavitt say "Administration" 10+ times during the next White House Press…	2026-07-23	—	$173	$173	C	`0xb2f24b…4108`
Will Leavitt say "President" 40+ times during the next White House Press…	2026-07-23	99.9%	$471	$471	C	`0xdce923…067f`
Will Leavitt say "Iran" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	0.1%	$323	$323	C	`0x5fde01…98a0`
Will Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	99.7%	$60K	$60K	C	`0x233e93…0978`
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	84.0%	$175	$175	C	`0x02944f…d463`
Will Leavitt say "Thing" 10+ times during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	84.0%	$228	$228	C	`0x51115f…27c4`
Will Leavitt say "Border" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	84.0%	$266	$266	C	`0x7bcdbc…e9bf`
Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" or "Strait" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-23	84.0%	$219	$219	C	`0xf09fb6…addc`
Will Leavitt say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing	2026-07-31	76.0%	$146	$146	C	`0x5b98a8…3dbc`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 22 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the acting White House Press Secretary says the listed term during the next White House press briefing they participate in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such press briefing happens by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". This market refers to White House press briefings by the acting White House Press Secretary (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by the acting White House Press Secretary will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as the acting White House Press Secretary is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify. The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (5) · single authority

rollcall.com venue-listed
polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/ from rules text · editorial
footage of the relevant briefing source of record from rules text · editorial

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-the-next-white-house-press-briefing-20260723134130083/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-the-next-white-house-press-briefing-20260723134130083`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-the-next-white-house-press-briefing-20260723134130083")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MGDRLLFX83",
  "slug": "what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-the-next-white-house-press-briefing-20260723134130083",
  "question": "Will Karoline Leavitt make a statement during the next White House press briefing?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "white-house-briefing",
    "press-secretary",
    "speech-content",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 22,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 65338,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 57,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "footage of the relevant briefing",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "rollcall.com",
      "url": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
      "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
      "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "footage of the relevant briefing",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →