Will Kevin Warsh make a specific statement during the July press conference? [ resolves 2026-07-29 (6D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 86.0% | $24 | $837 | B | 0xc81316…f5a3 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 84.0% | $324 | $749 | B | 0x05804e…4c2c | ||
| Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 79.0% | $2 | $1.7K | B | 0xe46106…3bf7 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 78.0% | $3.9K | $5.4K | B | 0x11783d…d83f | ||
| Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 72.0% | $505 | $1.1K | B | 0xa9885b…40e1 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 69.0% | $205 | $255 | B | 0xe13802…0014 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 68.0% | — | $203 | B | 0xedacbf…561f | ||
| Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 67.0% | $230 | $1.3K | B | 0x7b69d9…b4bc | ||
| Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 64.0% | $50 | $171 | B | 0x047592…2148 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 61.0% | $322 | $1.4K | B | 0x57c086…3d8f | ||
| Will Warsh say "Dollar" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 51.0% | $277 | $302 | B | 0x62386e…1bd1 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 48.0% | $1.6K | $1.8K | B | 0xaa7fb7…5159 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 47.0% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x713959…2dec | ||
| Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 47.0% | $2.8K | $2.8K | B | 0x9f7f8a…ff08 | ||
| Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 42.0% | $39 | $1.2K | B | 0xb4d5b5…0eba | ||
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 38.0% | $1.5K | $3.6K | B | 0xb0cbf9…3007 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 38.0% | — | $1.0K | B | 0xc31004…31a9 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 38.0% | $13 | $1.3K | B | 0x66678d…818f | ||
| Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 35.0% | — | $592 | B | 0x821aa7…9e79 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 33.0% | — | $1.9K | B | 0xa6964d…78ad | ||
| Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 29.0% | $56 | $99 | B | 0x0efca8…f5d5 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 22.0% | $200 | $200 | B | 0x8b3ed4…8550 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 21.0% | $232 | $369 | B | 0x5fbeba…3ebf | ||
| Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 19.0% | $333 | $1.4K | B | 0xecf59b…a746 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 16.0% | $6 | $604 | B | 0xb95a59…cdab | ||
| Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 14.0% | $799 | $4.0K | B | 0x79515e…044c | ||
| Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 12.0% | $101 | $897 | B | 0x7e3140…c4cb | ||
| Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 12.0% | $210 | $873 | B | 0xdd32d1…5276 | ||
| Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 10.0% | $699 | $1.7K | B | 0x6d5cfc…646c | ||
| Will Warsh say "Renovation" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | 7.0% | $1.5K | $2.1K | B | 0x8903c3…21cd | ||
| Will Warsh’s remarks not air | 2026-07-29 | 3.0% | — | $1.1K | B | 0xb4f4a4…0a2b | ||
| Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | — | $124 | $124 | B | 0xa5941a…fe2e | ||
| Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during July Press Conference | 2026-07-29 | — | — | — | B | 0xc3d9f2…0eb5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
- polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
- upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
- video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-july-press-conference-20260720204109027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-july-press-conference-20260720204109027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-july-press-conference-20260720204109027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F0H1GY8D68",
"slug": "what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-july-press-conference-20260720204109027",
"question": "Will Kevin Warsh make a specific statement during the July press conference?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"fomc",
"fed-chair",
"press-conference",
"speech-analysis"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 42228,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}