Will Kevin Warsh make a statement during the June Press Conference? [ resolved 2026-06-18 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 27 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| "Rate" or "Cut" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | $104 | $222 | B | 0xbcfca8…5446 | ||
| "Chair" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | $95 | $459 | B | 0x7b1c9d…2bab | ||
| "Money" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | $4 | $24 | B | 0xdd327f…5038 | ||
| "Balance Sheet" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | $79 | $243 | B | 0xab5fa1…e8fa | ||
| "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | — | $210 | B | 0xbe37c2…b089 | ||
| "FED" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | — | $22 | B | 0x13c466…b1b5 | ||
| "Trend" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | — | $15 | B | 0xae8ae4…02f3 | ||
| "Stable" or "Stability" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | — | $29 | B | 0xf33eac…bda2 | ||
| "Maximum Employment" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | $95 | $110 | B | 0x0aba29…247e | ||
| "Dual Mandate" | 2026-06-18 | 100.0% | — | $65 | B | 0xb7f124…3c19 | ||
| "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $51 | $316 | B | 0x8c490f…c7ea | ||
| "Job" 15+ times | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | $369 | B | 0x022f7c…ca3c | ||
| "Trump" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $162 | $3.7K | B | 0xad6595…edd2 | ||
| "Downside" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | $15 | B | 0x7a24de…618a | ||
| "Asymmetric" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $120 | $816 | B | 0xf779b3…c9ea | ||
| "Inflation" 60+ times | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | $6 | B | 0xbc45d8…3000 | ||
| "Good Afternoon" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $144 | $3.9K | B | 0xd8b5f0…f2dd | ||
| "Jerome" or "Powell" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $210 | $230 | B | 0x2644d2…d9f7 | ||
| "Depression" or "Recession" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $50 | $2.0K | B | 0x37e9f0…5e57 | ||
| "Goods Inflation" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $265 | $1.4K | B | 0x2b6e26…0376 | ||
| "I Don't Know" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | $103 | B | 0x9000ef…7fb3 | ||
| "Job Market" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $25 | $50 | B | 0xe80cd4…6069 | ||
| "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $11 | $1.1K | B | 0x4487c7…28c7 | ||
| "Stock" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $40 | $672 | B | 0xffe68d…8254 | ||
| "Groupthink" or "Group Think" | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $61 | $485 | B | 0x4d0ba9…0da7 | ||
| "Inflation" 40+ times | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | $15 | $177 | B | 0x3e66cd…4b8f | ||
| "Inflation" 50+ times | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | $50 | B | 0xd93987…69c0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on June 17, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Warsh is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
If no such statement by Warsh happens by June 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · single authority
- video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (27 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MMY95FQVR5",
"slug": "what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516",
"question": "Will Kevin Warsh make a statement during the June Press Conference?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-chair",
"fomc",
"monetary-policy",
"speech-analysis",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 27,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16749,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}