Will SpaceX make a statement about their business operations during their next earnings call? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (0D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX say "Grok" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 99.0% | $79 | $286 | C | 0x9e6e2a…ce93 | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Starship" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 99.0% | — | $294 | C | 0x721727…ed4b | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Elon" or "Musk" 3+ times during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 98.9% | $211 | $1.4K | C | 0x3747bd…6cf9 | ||
| Will SpaceX say "IPO" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 97.0% | — | $151 | C | 0x6a5691…24f2 | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Data Center" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 94.7% | $719 | $937 | C | 0x91ce3d…e22b | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Mars" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 80.0% | $608 | $1.7K | C | 0x5e384a…9a0d | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Moon" 3+ times during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 76.0% | — | $120 | C | 0xb8d135…1e16 | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Trump" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 22.0% | $555 | $748 | C | 0x606016…4873 | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Fuel" 3+ times during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | — | — | — | C | 0xd43949…b007 | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Data Center" 5+ times during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 97.0% | — | $150 | C | 0xdd6856…101d | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Cursor" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 91.0% | $1.3K | $2.6K | C | 0x557cc8…34dd | ||
| Will SpaceX say "ISS" or "International Space Station" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 60.0% | $399 | $1.0K | C | 0xf2088d…b3ed | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Launch" 10+ times during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 57.0% | — | $266 | C | 0x7fcc1b…6d6c | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Tesla" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 53.0% | $619 | $1.1K | C | 0x267ad6…8f40 | ||
| Will SpaceX say "Weather" during earnings call | 2026-08-04 | 40.0% | $177 | $318 | C | 0xb8cff4…22f1 | ||
| Will the earnings call not air | 2026-08-04 | 1.3% | $442 | $874 | C | 0x1ec2b3…74d2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of SpaceX currently scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be audio of the event.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
- polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
- upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
- audio of the event source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-spacex-say-during-their-next-earnings-call-20260730164309229/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-spacex-say-during-their-next-earnings-call-20260730164309229 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-spacex-say-during-their-next-earnings-call-20260730164309229") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CP47DM6NS4",
"slug": "what-will-spacex-say-during-their-next-earnings-call-20260730164309229",
"question": "Will SpaceX make a statement about their business operations during their next earnings call?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex",
"earnings-call",
"speech-analysis",
"tech",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11846,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "audio of the event",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "audio of the event",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}