Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 20 Gwei before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
polymarket: [B] objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 5 | 2027-01-01 | 42.0% | — | $810 | B | 0xa6a9da…d16e | ||
| ≥ 10 | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $1.3K | B | 0x9cd09f…d76a | ||
| ≥ 15 | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $2.1K | B | 0xe32a73…6063 | ||
| ≥ 20 | 2027-01-01 | 17.5% | — | $4.0K | B | 0x85d9ea…cacc | ||
| ≥ 25 | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $2.2K | B | 0x9ea003…d5f2 | ||
| ≥ 40 | 2027-01-01 | 3.4% | — | $2.3K | B | 0xb5d84b…d386 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | dune.com | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.
This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.
A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-hit-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-hit-before-2027.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-hit-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6SJC52SQ44",
"slug": "what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-hit-before-2027",
"question": "Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 20 Gwei before 2027?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"ethereum",
"gas-prices",
"layer-1-metrics",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12782,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "dune.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}