What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index reach in 2026? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2027-01 ]
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV sources (4) · single authority
- charts.volmex.finance venue-listed
- Volmex source of record from rules text · editorial
- Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index from rules text · editorial
- https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-02-05 | — |
| closed | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-02-05 | — |
| closed | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-02-05 | — |
| closed | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-01-31 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B4X6SFJXD1",
"slug": "what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026",
"question": "What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index reach in 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin",
"volatility-index",
"crypto-derivatives",
"price-movement",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21802,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Volmex",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "charts.volmex.finance",
"url": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Volmex",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}