Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index reach a specific level in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by strike

polymarket 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≤ 30	2027-01-01	43.0%	—	$191	A	`0x335ae6…b691`
≥ 50	2027-01-01	99.9%	—	$7.7K	A	`0x6a1897…18df`
≥ 60	2027-01-01	99.9%	—	$7.8K	A	`0xec3503…c876`
≥ 70	2027-01-01	99.9%	—	$4.2K	A	`0xc80f52…25e4`
≥ 80	2027-01-01	99.9%	—	$1.9K	A	`0xebea46…0dea`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	charts.volmex.finance	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 5 markets · share this text

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index between January 26, 2026, 11:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B4X6SFJXD1",
  "slug": "what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index reach a specific level in 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "bitcoin",
    "crypto",
    "volatility-index",
    "price-action",
    "2027",
    "technical-metrics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 21802,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 81,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "charts.volmex.finance",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →