Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30? [ resolves 2026-09-30 (69D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $419,000 | 2026-09-30 | 39.2% | $57 | $4.7K | C | 0xd15829…62ba | ||
| Between $426,000 and $433,000 | 2026-09-30 | 33.0% | $50 | $4.1K | C | 0xf5373f…9f39 | ||
| Between $419,000 and $426,000 | 2026-09-30 | 28.0% | $50 | $7.9K | C | 0xba8274…5369 | ||
| Between $433,000 and $440,000 | 2026-09-30 | 6.0% | $50 | $6.6K | C | 0x00d4c6…da06 | ||
| Between $440,000 and $447,000 | 2026-09-30 | 1.2% | $50 | $909 | C | 0xbb7d97…41a4 | ||
| Between $447,000 and $454,000 | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | $30 | $2.9K | C | 0x761643…1036 | ||
| ≥ $454,000 | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | — | $532 | C | 0xae9bef…e419 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49 sources (2) · single authority
- app.parcllabs.com venue-listed
- Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-us-be-on-september-30-20260630175540363/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-us-be-on-september-30-20260630175540363 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-us-be-on-september-30-20260630175540363") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RLDGCHYZ91",
"slug": "what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-us-be-on-september-30-20260630175540363",
"question": "Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"us-housing",
"median-home-value",
"real-estate-2026",
"economic-indicator"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 27598,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Parcl Labs Sales Price Index",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "app.parcllabs.com",
"url": "https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}