Will Trump make remarks in Las Vegas? [ resolves 2026-08-05 (1D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 92.0% | $4.2K | $4.2K | C | 0x2d7921…365b | ||
| Will Trump say "Waitress" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 80.0% | $725 | $725 | C | 0x88c08c…5768 | ||
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 45.0% | $2.9K | $2.9K | C | 0x2bddb0…b75d | ||
| Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 67.0% | $860 | $860 | C | 0x72d359…9c25 | ||
| Will Trump say "Through the Roof" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 64.0% | $647 | $647 | C | 0xe5522d…6cb8 | ||
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 42.0% | $2.5K | $2.5K | C | 0xd66795…81e4 | ||
| Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 66.0% | $2.7K | $2.7K | C | 0xe82812…4017 | ||
| Will Trump say "Racist" or "Lebron James" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 59.0% | $2.3K | $2.3K | C | 0x6b7da0…1c07 | ||
| Will Trump say "COVID" or "Warp Speed" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 45.0% | $2.5K | $2.5K | C | 0x191a53…b1a0 | ||
| Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 39.0% | $1.5K | $1.5K | C | 0xc35b94…83d7 | ||
| Will Trump say "Police Officer" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 34.0% | $1.5K | $1.5K | C | 0x15657d…ecaa | ||
| Will Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 30.0% | $3.3K | $3.3K | C | 0xc9dc74…48cc | ||
| Will Trump say "Rural Health" or "Rural Healthcare" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 29.0% | $2.2K | $2.2K | C | 0x2441a5…df98 | ||
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during remarks in Las Vegas | 2026-08-05 | 14.0% | $2.1K | $2.1K | C | 0x717fe2…616a | ||
| Will Trump’s remarks not air | 2026-08-05 | 7.7% | $238 | $238 | C | 0x91553b…8431 | ||
| Will Trump say "Bitcoin", "Crypto", or "Cryptocurrency" during remarks in Las… | 2026-08-05 | 6.0% | $2.6K | $2.6K | C | 0x776232…55b4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks in Las Vegas on August 5, 2026, at 4:30 PM ET. (https://www.forth.news/whpool/CdeLprcbvz7bozG74CZuy).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market is explicitly about Trump’s remarks in Las Vegas on August 5, 2026 scheduled for 4:30 PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by August 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be audio/video of the event.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4)
- forth.news venue-listed
- rollcall.com venue-listed
- polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
- upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-trump-say-during-remarks-in-las-vegas-20260803153421445/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-trump-say-during-remarks-in-las-vegas-20260803153421445 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-trump-say-during-remarks-in-las-vegas-20260803153421445") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XM0CQ9HLD4",
"slug": "what-will-trump-say-during-remarks-in-las-vegas-20260803153421445",
"question": "Will Trump make remarks in Las Vegas?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"speech-content",
"2026",
"event-remarks",
"word-frequency"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32637,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "forth.news",
"url": "https://www.forth.news/whpool/CdeLprcbvz7bozG74CZuy",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "rollcall.com",
"url": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}