Will Trump attend and speak at the White House Correspondents' Dinner? [ resolved 2026-07-24 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 19 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $223 | $368 | C | 0x5db873…eebf | ||
| Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $10 | $79 | C | 0xe35e6d…10b3 | ||
| Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $1.5K | $2.1K | C | 0x51364c…57b2 | ||
| Will Trump say "Drone" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $189 | $292 | C | 0xd91111…4084 | ||
| Will Trump say "Fake News" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $1.9K | $3.0K | C | 0x9bd277…64dd | ||
| Will Trump say "Nasty" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $20 | $60 | C | 0xe1189b…0219 | ||
| Will Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $244 | $419 | C | 0x3db660…ea4a | ||
| Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times during White House… | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $14 | $99 | C | 0xf4acb1…f8c7 | ||
| Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Trump" during White House… | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x812477…b270 | ||
| Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $2 | $45 | C | 0x0ba734…8607 | ||
| Will Trump say "Shots fired" or "Shots will be fired" during White House… | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $984 | $2.0K | C | 0x4927b8…29ca | ||
| Will Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $1.3K | $3.6K | C | 0x484ab4…28d6 | ||
| Will Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $312 | $846 | C | 0xff1aa0…c165 | ||
| Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $179 | $417 | C | 0x0671f8…d35b | ||
| Will Trump say "Central Casting" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $58 | $216 | C | 0xa73cb4…0487 | ||
| Will Trump say "Movie Star" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $894 | $1.6K | C | 0x0899aa…f32f | ||
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $5 | $147 | C | 0x30e927…71ed | ||
| Will Trump say "Butler" during White House Correspondents Dinner | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $45 | $131 | C | 0xcb2448…8f2f | ||
| Will Trump’s remarks not air | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | — | $405 | C | 0xc85578…c692 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a White House Correspondents Dinner on July 24, 2026 (https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his White House Correspondents Dinner on July 24, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market is explicitly about the "White House Correspondents Dinner" scheduled for July 24, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other markets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video of the events.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (4)
- whca.press venue-listed
- polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
- upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
- video of the events from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Trump" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Shots fired" or "Shots will be fired" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Six Seven" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Butler" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Central Casting" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump say "Movie Star" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Fake News" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Drone" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will Trump say "Nasty" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 100% |
| NO | Will Trump’s remarks not air? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (19 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-trump-say-during-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner-20260715212255806/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-trump-say-during-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner-20260715212255806 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-trump-say-during-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner-20260715212255806") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y9QV9J00L9",
"slug": "what-will-trump-say-during-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner-20260715212255806",
"question": "Will Trump attend and speak at the White House Correspondents' Dinner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"speech-content",
"white-house-correspondents-dinner",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 19,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15830,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "whca.press",
"url": "https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "video of the events",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}