Will Trump make a public statement this week (July 20 - July 26)? [ resolved 2026-07-26 ]

Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 31 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
"Gianni" or "Infantino"	2026-07-21	99.9%	—	$605	C	`0x8a110d…5d8c`
"Barack Hussein Obama"	2026-07-21	99.8%	—	$1.9K	C	`0xeffe7e…daa0`
"Trump Account"	2026-07-22	99.9%	$167	$3.0K	C	`0x3d8d7d…563e`
"Transgender"	2026-07-22	99.9%	—	$2.3K	C	`0x9fe52d…46ea`
"Sleepy Joe"	2026-07-22	99.7%	—	$1.4K	C	`0xe5fc54…d52a`
"Egg"	2026-07-22	99.9%	$50	$555	C	`0x09efc5…9697`
"Ballroom"	2026-07-22	99.9%	$50	$653	C	`0x3ca879…1f58`
"Landslide"	2026-07-23	99.9%	$850	$939	C	`0xb11cb8…4b79`
"Fraud"	2026-07-23	99.9%	$169	$366	C	`0x83e170…a4aa`
"President Xi"	2026-07-26	100.0%	$148	$148	C	`0x07b2d4…4204`
"Rigged"	2026-07-26	100.0%	—	—	C	`0xab8775…c4f7`
"Champion"	2026-07-26	100.0%	$250	$276	C	`0xb8c120…f442`
"Melania"	2026-07-26	100.0%	—	—	C	`0xbe4555…a057`
"Windmill"	2026-07-26	100.0%	$127	$127	C	`0xa7bbc7…229d`
"Crypto" or "Bitcoin"	2026-07-26	100.0%	$1.6K	$2.0K	C	`0x0109c6…7763`
"Karoline" or "Leavitt"	2026-07-26	100.0%	—	$811	C	`0x28be45…8a31`
"Marijuana", "Weed", or "Cannabis"	2026-07-26	100.0%	$100	$164	C	`0x7e7f27…782f`
"Bibi" or "Netanyahu"	2026-07-26	100.0%	$623	$921	C	`0x235b5e…4ac9`
"TikTok"	2026-07-26	100.0%	—	—	C	`0xa18e14…9382`
"Six Seven"	2026-07-26	0.0%	$14	$591	C	`0x01ef33…b8ab`
"Messi"	2026-07-26	0.0%	—	$207	C	`0x214ab8…7268`
"Spain"	2026-07-26	0.0%	—	$9	C	`0x8c6d8a…9a3b`
"Ronaldo"	2026-07-26	0.0%	$45	$1.1K	C	`0x8a8ee8…32ad`
"Cuba" or "Cuban"	2026-07-26	0.0%	—	—	C	`0xcf3eb8…4408`
"Golden Dome"	2026-07-26	0.0%	—	$1.3K	C	`0xbc1d6d…d1c7`
"Stupid Question"	2026-07-26	0.0%	$10	$30	C	`0x95a6a8…dd7d`
"Uranium"	2026-07-26	0.0%	$10	$271	C	`0xa5efd1…01db`
"American Flag Blue"	2026-07-26	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x6da1c2…6199`
"Autopen" or "Auto Pen"	2026-07-26	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x33f3be…c0db`
"Epstein"	2026-07-26	0.0%	—	$241	C	`0xc056b6…7b13`
"Ukraine"	2026-07-26	0.0%	—	—	C	`0x80814a…d66a`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 31 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

sources (2)

polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will Trump say "Cuba" or "Cuban" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Golden Dome" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Spain" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Messi" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Ronaldo" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Epstein" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Stupid Question" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "American Flag Blue" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
NO	Will Trump say "Ukraine" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-27`	`0%`
YES	Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-25`	`100%`
YES	Will Trump say "Rigged" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-25`	`100%`
YES	Will Trump say "TikTok" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-25`	`100%`
YES	Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-25`	`100%`
YES	Will Trump say "Melania" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-25`	`100%`
YES	Will Trump say "Marijuana", "Weed", or "Cannabis" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-24`	`100%`
YES	Will Trump say "President Xi" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-23`	`100%`
YES	Will Trump say "Windmill" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-23`	`100%`
YES	Will Trump say "Champion" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-23`	`100%`
YES	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week?	polymarket	`2026-07-23`	`100%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (22 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-trump-say-this-week-july-20-july-26-20260719005322431/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-trump-say-this-week-july-20-july-26-20260719005322431`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("what-will-trump-say-this-week-july-20-july-26-20260719005322431")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z7W9FJHJQ5",
  "slug": "what-will-trump-say-this-week-july-20-july-26-20260719005322431",
  "question": "Will Trump make a public statement this week (July 20 - July 26)?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "weekly-statement",
    "2026",
    "prediction-market",
    "speech-content"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 31,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 19926,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 46,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
      "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
      "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →