Will Bitcoin reach $150,000? [ resolves 2025-10 – 2027-01 ]
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $150,000 | 2025-10-01 | 100.0% | — | $779K | A | 0xe85aa0…d1a8 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2026-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $1.56M | A | 0x0cd467…4170 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2026-04-01 | 0.1% | — | — | A | 0xe857d6…d068 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $55K | $20.53M | A | 0xa0f4c4…3dd5 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $7.2K | $2.48M | A | 0x02deb9…41e8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT sources (3) · single authority
- binance.com venue-listed
- Binance source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| closed | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-04-01 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-01-01 | — |
| closed | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? | polymarket | 2025-10-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Bitcoin at $150K by June 30 sits deep in tail-risk territory 1% · $5.8M 24h
- Polymarket prices only 1% chance Bitcoin reaches $150K within 27 days.
- $5.82M traded in 24h, 37% of all-time volume floods in at cycle-end.
- Month-end deadline compresses time; market reads near-zero probability despite high attention.
- Resolves June 30; rapid spot-price moves only catalyst for meaningful re-pricing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NJCS7H1VQ2",
"slug": "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k",
"question": "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin",
"crypto-prices",
"price-milestones",
"btc-targets",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 25349376,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Binance",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "binance.com",
"url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Binance",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}