Will GPT-5.6 be released? [ resolved 2026-06-28 ]
Will GPT-5.6 be released prior to May 18, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Be released prior to May 18, | 2026-05-20 | 1.4% | — | $3.0K | C | 0xaed070…0102 | ||
| Be released between May 18 and May 24, | 2026-05-25 | 0.4% | — | $2.2K | C | 0xafc7f9…b560 | ||
| Be released between May 25 and May 31, | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $22K | C | 0x32e8c7…f13a | ||
| Be released between June 1 and June 7, | 2026-06-08 | 0.4% | — | $15K | C | 0xb049da…08b7 | ||
| Not be released by June 28, | 2026-06-28 | 100.0% | $779 | $29K | C | 0x719a14…b0fe | ||
| Be released between June 15 and June 21, | 2026-06-28 | 0.0% | $1.6K | $21K | C | 0xee786e…089f | ||
| Be released between June 8 and June 14, | 2026-06-28 | 0.0% | $748 | $37K | C | 0x1d37a8…d1e0 | ||
| Be released between June 22 and June 28, | 2026-06-28 | 0.0% | $1.9K | $18K | C | 0x0fc751…39d5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from OpenAI from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-28 | 0% |
| YES | Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-28 | 100% |
| NO | Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-28 | 0% |
| closed | Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-08 | — |
| closed | Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | — |
| closed | Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 18 and May 24, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-25 | — |
| closed | Will GPT-5.6 be released prior to May 18, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-20 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (8 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LKKL42JDH9",
"slug": "when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released",
"question": "Will GPT-5.6 be released?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"openai",
"large-language-models",
"product-release",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 147744,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from OpenAI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}