Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 19 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 49.0% | $13K | $1.09M | C | 0x189c38…c787 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan | 2026-06-30 | 32.3% | $4.2K | $1.06M | C | 0x0f3062…c964 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar | 2026-06-30 | 10.0% | $7.0K | $423K | C | 0xc7373d…457b | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland | 2026-06-30 | 1.7% | $3.0K | $376K | C | 0x291ff8…5639 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country | 2026-06-30 | 1.5% | $2.9K | $314K | C | 0xfec514…0661 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman | 2026-06-30 | 1.3% | $2.6K | $350K | C | 0x026750…d5d6 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States | 2026-06-30 | 0.9% | $2.3K | $295K | C | 0x991149…017b | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria | 2026-06-30 | 0.8% | $2.4K | $250K | C | 0x061d30…caa7 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt | 2026-06-30 | 0.2% | $2.5K | $252K | C | 0x2a903c…5221 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa… | 2026-06-30 | 0.2% | $1.3K | $238K | C | 0x4cb5cc…0a45 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia | 2026-06-30 | 0.2% | $331 | $266K | C | 0x9e4b81…a098 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia | 2026-06-30 | 0.2% | $2.2K | $236K | C | 0xfa8eea…39c4 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey | 2026-06-30 | 0.2% | $5.5K | $358K | C | 0x3a77d0…764b | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | — | $182K | C | 0xe24b9a…f3d0 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | $3.1K | $864K | C | 0x30d685…c9c4 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | $602 | $799K | C | 0x6967cb…5ada | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | $2.1K | $307K | C | 0xd45b7c…b0d3 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | $484 | $107K | C | 0xe9e221…cd93 | ||
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | $2.0K | $151K | C | 0x549491…faa9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | state.gov | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-happen-455/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-happen-455.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-happen-455") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1RQNR30Q04",
"slug": "where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-happen-455",
"question": "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-iran-relations",
"diplomacy-venue",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 19,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7923049,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "state.gov",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}