Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier Airlines | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $33K | C | 0x94a308…410c | ||
| JetBlue | 2026-12-31 | 5.8% | $20 | $23K | C | 0xa57eff…8b47 | ||
| Allegiant | 2026-12-31 | 3.6% | $2 | $30K | C | 0xe2b514…cc69 | ||
| American Airlines | 2026-12-31 | 3.2% | — | $12K | C | 0x6d308d…b931 | ||
| Alaska Airlines | 2026-12-31 | 3.1% | — | $21K | C | 0x2c608c…1565 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.
The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.
A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-airlines-will-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-airlines-will-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-airlines-will-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GHR1580HL9",
"slug": "which-airlines-will-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31",
"question": "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"airline-bankruptcy",
"finance",
"corporate-insolvency",
"2026",
"business-disruption"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 118737,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}