Will any bills become law in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year | 2026-12-31 | 91.0% | $10 | $23 | A | 0x8d7b8e…5883 | ||
| Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year | 2026-12-31 | 83.0% | — | $30K | A | 0x28d6d1…21c2 | ||
| Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year | 2026-12-31 | 83.0% | — | $57 | A | 0x58d735…f897 | ||
| Will Trump Airport become law this year | 2026-12-31 | 60.0% | — | $184 | A | 0x9e9d66…c627 | ||
| Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year | 2026-12-31 | 46.0% | — | $51 | A | 0x2d7293…e23b | ||
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year | 2026-12-31 | 44.0% | $42 | $75K | A | 0x612126…33e5 | ||
| Will the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $3.2K | A | 0x463787…f07c | ||
| Will the SHOWER Act become law this year | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $218 | A | 0x5bdd68…7b82 | ||
| Will $2.50 Coin become law this year | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | — | $202 | A | 0xe73ed5…e2a6 | ||
| Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $50 | A | 0x66bb72…24fa | ||
| Will Export-control chip security become law this year | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $46 | A | 0xbd264d…1f40 | ||
| Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $87 | A | 0xbcf92d…8b7e | ||
| Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $59 | A | 0x053bf7…0a51 | ||
| Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year | 2026-12-31 | — | — | — | A | 0xc2a2b9…2e30 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | congress.gov | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes the S. 1837 (119th) — “DEFIANCE Act of 2025.”
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22 recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L4XLBWP2Z8",
"slug": "which-bills-will-become-law-in-2026",
"question": "Will any bills become law in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"congress",
"trump",
"politics",
"us-legislation",
"2026",
"bill-passage"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 109520,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "congress.gov",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}