Will Russia enter any additional cities by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12 – 2027-01 ]
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Druzkhivka | 2026-12-31 | 39.0% | $4.0K | $125K | C | 0xb7d6db…9b69 | ||
| Kramatorsk | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $255 | $32K | C | 0x357ee5…4211 | ||
| Sloviansk | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $6.5K | $49K | C | 0xd4aa5c…e041 | ||
| Kherson | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $2.8K | C | 0x465ca3…a443 | ||
| Kharkiv | 2026-12-31 | 3.7% | $4.6K | $99K | C | 0x399858…6584 | ||
| Sumy | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $2.0K | $52K | C | 0x4d3395…2561 | ||
| Zaporizhia | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | $53 | $185K | C | 0xe97ddd…9b35 | ||
| Dopropillia | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | $1.4K | $129K | C | 0x6557ff…7e50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sloviansk (48.853751256046095° N, 37.60508085394494° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 sources (8) · stated precedence rule
maps.app.goo.gl venue-listed storymaps.arcgis.com venue-listed deepstatemap.live venue-listed ISW map from rules text ISW Ukraine map committed source DeepStateMap from rules text ISW from rules text DeepStateMap from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-22 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Russia taking Sloviansk by year-end stays a long shot at 12% 12% · $77K 24h
- At 12%, Polymarket prices a Russian capture of Sloviansk before year-end as unlikely but not negligible.
- 24h volume of $77K is 47% of all-time, nearly half the contract's lifetime liquidity traded in one day.
- A near-half-life volume burst on a low-probability geopolitical contract often signals fresh battlefield reporting or intelligence assessments.
- Contract resolves December 31, 2026, tied to confirmed Russian control of Sloviansk.
- Odds hold Russia out of Sloviansk by year-end at 15% 15% · $38K 24h
- At 15%, Polymarket prices Russian entry into Sloviansk before December 31 as a low-probability tail.
- 30% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, mirroring the Dopropillia contract's pattern, suggesting paired positioning.
- The gap between Dopropillia (97%) and Sloviansk (15%) maps a market-implied advance corridor traders are pricing explicitly.
- Resolves December 31, 2026.
- Traders back Russia taking Dopropillia by year-end 97% · $102K 24h
- At 97%, Polymarket treats Russian entry into Dopropillia before December 31 as near-certain.
- 24h volume of $102K is 28% of all-time handle, a sharp one-day concentration of capital.
- Fresh attention likely trails battlefield reporting; a contract this deep needs active sellers to stay liquid.
- Resolves December 31, 2026, little time for a reversal to matter at these odds.
- Traders back Russia taking Dopropillia by year-end at 97% 97% · $91K 24h
- Polymarket prices Russian entry into Dopropillia by Dec 31 at 97%, near-certain resolution already priced.
- $90.9K in 24h is 27% of the contract's all-time volume, suggesting a discrete field update is prompting position closes or late entry.
- At 97%, fresh volume likely reflects confirmed battlefield movement driving traders to lock in the consensus before resolution.
- Resolves Dec 31, 2026; residual 3% reflects settlement/definition risk, not strategic uncertainty.
- Russia reaching Kramatorsk by year-end stays a long shot at 22% 22% · $50K 24h
- Polymarket prices Russian capture of Kramatorsk at 22%, reflecting low but non-trivial odds of a major eastern Ukraine shift.
- $50K in 24h accounts for 39% of all-time volume, pointing to renewed geopolitical attention on the Donetsk front.
- Kramatorsk is a key logistics hub; fresh trading may follow battlefield reporting or diplomatic developments.
- December 31 deadline is the resolution gate, roughly 15 weeks of conflict trajectory to monitor.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7G3FWY0RL4",
"slug": "which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Russia enter any additional cities by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"russia-ukraine-conflict",
"territorial-control",
"military-operations",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 674934,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 55,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
"url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/Gezpp2b4SDnefJ5s9",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
"url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "deepstatemap.live",
"url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ISW map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ISW Ukraine map",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "DeepStateMap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ISW",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "DeepStateMap",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}