Will at least one company have a #1 AI model by June 30, 2024? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 99.9% | — | $258K | C | 0x4f521e…6d1b | ||
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 11.0% | $1.0K | $417K | C | 0x1ea03c…74a4 | ||
| Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 2.4% | $5 | $13K | C | 0x2e19ad…ed8e | ||
| Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 2.1% | — | $11K | C | 0xa097da…1aec | ||
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 2.0% | $193 | $565K | C | 0x20923d…79ce | ||
| Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 2.0% | — | $6.8K | C | 0xd51d58…0de3 | ||
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 1.7% | $101 | $12K | C | 0x1372ac…47cf | ||
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 1.6% | — | $280K | C | 0x968f57…2e77 | ||
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 1.2% | $114 | $18K | C | 0x843256…5d80 | ||
| Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 1.2% | — | $4.0K | C | 0x56beaa…299f | ||
| Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.9% | — | $3.2K | C | 0xc45f66…c7f8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7RJZDF17T4",
"slug": "which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30",
"question": "Will at least one company have a #1 AI model by June 30, 2024?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-models",
"tech-rankings",
"ai-competition",
"2026",
"benchmark-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1588291,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 67,
"rcg_caps": [
"none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}