Which companies will the US take a stake in by 2026-12-31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GlobalFoundries Inc. | 2026-12-31 | 77.1% | — | $5.1K | C | 0x29de69…35ff | ||
| Rigetti Computing, Inc. | 2026-12-31 | 67.2% | $62 | $25K | C | 0xf179f5…2a9f | ||
| SpaceX | 2026-12-31 | 35.0% | — | $18 | C | 0x713c37…ebdb | ||
| D-Wave Quantum Inc. | 2026-12-31 | 27.0% | — | $3.6K | C | 0xb8aa75…bf59 | ||
| OpenAI | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | — | $7.7K | C | 0x1166be…261b | ||
| Anduril Industries, Inc. | 2026-12-31 | 25.0% | — | $42K | C | 0x11c846…be38 | ||
| IonQ, Inc. | 2026-12-31 | 21.0% | $861 | $2.3K | C | 0x3e3188…4788 | ||
| Lockheed Martin Corporation | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $1.9K | C | 0x063bcc…7969 | ||
| Anthropic PBC | 2026-12-31 | 17.0% | — | $3.5K | C | 0x344583…55b1 | ||
| The Boeing Company | 2026-12-31 | 16.0% | $0 | $8.7K | C | 0x6e2c5a…d27c | ||
| NVIDIA Corporation | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $16K | C | 0xf86df8…97f1 | ||
| Eli Lilly and Company | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $2.6K | C | 0xe5ea72…abcb | ||
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $14K | C | 0xf0cfdf…1d00 | ||
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $1.5K | $2.8K | C | 0xfafdaf…6a0a | ||
| Pfizer Inc. | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $120 | $6.1K | C | 0x1e4ae2…1d3c | ||
| Palantir Technologies Inc. | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $2.9K | C | 0x1adad0…41a5 | ||
| Micron Technology, Inc. | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0xec8dc0…487a | ||
| TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $50 | $5.8K | C | 0xe61206…246c | ||
| Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $9 | $10K | C | 0xbabf4d…4091 | ||
| Unusual Machines | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $3 | C | 0x226949…26d0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the US federal government from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BDVS6ZB873",
"slug": "which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in",
"question": "Which companies will the US take a stake in by 2026-12-31?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-government-equity",
"corporate-investment",
"2026-resolution",
"trump-administration",
"tech-companies"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 160761,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the US federal government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}