Which company will have the #1 AI model by the end of July? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (8D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 2026-07-31 | 95.4% | $9 | $15K | A | 0xc38584…2b65 | ||
| OpenAI | 2026-07-31 | 1.6% | $15 | $12K | A | 0x1557b1…b179 | ||
| Moonshot | 2026-07-31 | 1.0% | — | $7.4K | A | 0xda5b6e…f66f | ||
| 2026-07-31 | 0.7% | — | $12K | A | 0xb87be7…2720 | |||
| Baidu | 2026-07-31 | 0.3% | — | $6.2K | A | 0x5830ff…217d | ||
| Alibaba | 2026-07-31 | 0.2% | — | $7.4K | A | 0x0b0c14…b21c | ||
| XAI | 2026-07-31 | 0.2% | — | $6.0K | A | 0x56ecde…c549 | ||
| Meta | 2026-07-31 | 0.2% | $2 | $6.7K | A | 0x296d03…37b0 | ||
| ByteDance | 2026-07-31 | 0.2% | — | $6.3K | A | 0x14e17a…4b1d | ||
| Z.ai | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $8.3K | A | 0xc21eb7…c250 | ||
| DeepSeek | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $8.0K | A | 0x74153f…da13 | ||
| Mistral | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $7.8K | A | 0x3d9e50…2002 | ||
| Meituan | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $6.0K | A | 0xe36630…38f5 | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $7.1K | A | 0x9ed093…48c2 | ||
| Amazon | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $8.1K | A | 0x722a6a…f4a8 | ||
| Company A | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x14cb90…46ae | ||
| Company B | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb63b51…4709 | ||
| Company C | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf95aa4…cee9 | ||
| Company D | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbbb937…7be8 | ||
| Company E | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd327df…443f | ||
| Company F | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb8fb9e…42d7 | ||
| Company G | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe06ade…86d0 | ||
| Company H | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6bf115…25f6 | ||
| Company I | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcf9d0c…7fa8 | ||
| Company K | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x06246a…05d2 | ||
| Any other company | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x550291…c523 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (5) · single authority
- lmarena.ai venue-listed
- lmarena.ai venue-listed
- Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://lmarena.ai/ from rules text · editorial
- https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-company-has-1-ai-model-end-of-july-style-control-on/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-company-has-1-ai-model-end-of-july-style-control-on |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-company-has-1-ai-model-end-of-july-style-control-on") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-57G1SMFRB6",
"slug": "which-company-has-1-ai-model-end-of-july-style-control-on",
"question": "Which company will have the #1 AI model by the end of July?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"tech",
"ai",
"ai-models",
"competition-ranking",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 125037,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}