Which company will have the best AI model by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 2026-12-31 | 52.0% | $134 | $57K | B | 0xe94406…aa46 | ||
| 2026-12-31 | 35.0% | $66 | $29K | B | 0x94f240…43cb | |||
| OpenAI | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $42K | B | 0xccc840…c2bd | ||
| XAI | 2026-12-31 | 4.3% | $2.1K | $35K | B | 0x32c244…21ec | ||
| DeepSeek | 2026-12-31 | 3.5% | $377 | $42K | B | 0x67adc2…46f8 | ||
| Z.ai | 2026-12-31 | 1.7% | — | $32K | B | 0x94f499…0be4 | ||
| Meta | 2026-12-31 | 1.4% | $623 | $31K | B | 0xc167a7…d644 | ||
| Moonshot | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | — | $41K | B | 0x42c3ff…db72 | ||
| Alibaba | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | $95 | $30K | B | 0xcd7a77…7d8e | ||
| Amazon | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $28K | B | 0x51d057…d39d | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $31K | B | 0x784beb…4731 | ||
| Baidu | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $21K | B | 0x714379…270a | ||
| ByteDance | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $43K | B | 0xea4597…ff31 | ||
| Mistral | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $28K | B | 0x94863f…d22f | ||
| Meituan | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $29K | B | 0x2b1602…79ac | ||
| Company A | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9c3dec…f639 | ||
| Company B | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xca430b…beaa | ||
| Company C | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x435c32…f2d9 | ||
| Company D | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x56518d…cd86 | ||
| Company E | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8bcb14…a4ae | ||
| Company F | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x608adc…4641 | ||
| Company G | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x216fd2…9d27 | ||
| Company H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa5b0fd…19ef | ||
| Company I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa9c28a…8984 | ||
| Company K | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x051c8c…eba9 | ||
| Any other company | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9226a4…907c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (5) · single authority
lmarena.ai venue-listed lmarena.ai venue-listed Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard committed source https://lmarena.ai/ from rules text https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text from rules text
recent wire items
- Mistral topping AI rankings by December stays a long shot 1% · $82K 24h
- Kalshi prices Mistral at 1%, market sees virtually no path to top ranking by year-end.
- 44% of all-time volume hit in 24h, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention on this contract.
- Surge likely reflects renewed debate around frontier model releases expected in Q4 2026.
- Resolves end of December 2026; current odds leave almost no room for a Mistral upset.
- Mistral best-model odds stay near zero through a volume spike 1% · $81K 24h
- Polymarket prices Mistral at 1%, the market treats this outcome as nearly impossible by December 2026.
- $81K traded in 24h represents 44% of all-time volume, an extraordinary concentration of activity on a deeply one-sided contract.
- Heavy trading at a floor price suggests fresh attention driven by a Mistral product announcement or model release news being rapidly discounted.
- Resolves on whether Mistral holds the consensus top-ranked AI model at end of December 2026.
- Google leads AI race by year-end stays a long shot 40% · $59K 24h
- Polymarket puts Google at 40% to hold the top AI model slot at December 2026 close, a clear underdog position.
- 24h volume of $59K is 37% of all-time, reflecting meaningful renewed interest, not a one-day anomaly.
- Likely catalyzed by Anthropic-vs-Google competitive news; this contract trades in direct tension with Spike 2.
- Resolves end of December 2026, implied odds suggest the market is betting against a Google recovery.
- Traders back Anthropic to lead AI by December 53% · $71K 24h
- Polymarket prices Anthropic as a narrow favorite at 53% to hold the top AI model ranking at December 2026.
- 24h volume of $71K, the largest single-day flow in this batch, represents 27% of all-time, showing sustained conviction.
- Volume likely triggered by a recent model release, evaluation result, or capability announcement shifting relative standing.
- Resolves December 2026; a 53% price implies this is still genuinely contested, not a runaway consensus.
- Traders back rivals over Google for top AI by year-end 39% · $50K 24h
- Market prices Google at 39%, odds-against that it leads the AI benchmark race by Dec 31.
- 33% of all-time volume ($50K of $152K lifetime) landed in 24h, a sharp burst of fresh conviction.
- Renewed attention likely tied to competitor model releases or leaked benchmark results circulating now.
- Resolves Dec 31, 2026; any major model drop from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Meta could reprice fast.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
"slug": "which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
"question": "Which company will have the best AI model by the end of 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-models",
"tech-competition",
"end-of-year-2026",
"ai-benchmarks",
"enterprise-ai"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 517554,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}