Which company will have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-31 (27D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 2026-08-31 | 86.0% | $4.2K | $6.0K | B | 0x272c45…33d9 | ||
| OpenAI | 2026-08-31 | 13.0% | $965 | $1.1K | B | 0x276194…b33b | ||
| Moonshot | 2026-08-31 | 0.2% | $584 | $672 | B | 0x516d49…ef6f | ||
| Xiaomi | 2026-08-31 | 0.2% | $990 | $1.2K | B | 0x11c813…f496 | ||
| StepFun | 2026-08-31 | 0.2% | $559 | $656 | B | 0xa1fada…cc02 | ||
| Meta | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $341 | $421 | B | 0x2fbecc…d74b | ||
| 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $501 | $581 | B | 0x259aea…8414 | |||
| Alibaba | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $374 | $466 | B | 0xe44cca…5dc5 | ||
| Baidu | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $341 | $421 | B | 0x754065…2f47 | ||
| Z.ai | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $341 | $421 | B | 0xdb0bee…6a6e | ||
| SpaceXAI | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $341 | $421 | B | 0x5d7c10…1966 | ||
| DeepSeek | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $290 | $451 | B | 0x819369…04d8 | ||
| Amazon | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $292 | $391 | B | 0x828a30…9e41 | ||
| ByteDance | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $382 | $471 | B | 0x04e761…edad | ||
| Nvidia | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $636 | $794 | B | 0xe78785…da9b | ||
| Thinky | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $922 | $1.1K | B | 0xbceefb…d96c | ||
| Mistral | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $292 | $366 | B | 0xfb6852…a617 | ||
| Meituan | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $292 | $403 | B | 0xd387ea…9db7 | ||
| Tencent | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $292 | $372 | B | 0xa382c5…5618 | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | $416 | $531 | B | 0xdaac94…8f32 | ||
| MiniMax | 2026-08-31 | — | $908 | $1.1K | B | 0x4ae708…8b44 | ||
| Company A | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7d1f2f…0713 | ||
| Company B | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd55750…edea | ||
| Company C | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1b59a0…69d9 | ||
| Company D | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcadbfc…79f6 | ||
| Company E | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7e7cee…d684 | ||
| Company F | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9a0c7a…ca04 | ||
| Company G | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5478c3…71d5 | ||
| Company H | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd8fc7e…7e67 | ||
| Company I | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf7adcd…391a | ||
| Company K | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xce5e05…55e9 | ||
| Any other company | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa87d31…2fac |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding sources (2) · single authority
- https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding venue-listed
- livebench.ai source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-coding-end-of-august-20260728170949210/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-coding-end-of-august-20260728170949210 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-coding-end-of-august-20260728170949210") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-046YRJNWF8",
"slug": "which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-coding-end-of-august-20260728170949210",
"question": "Which company will have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"benchmark-competition",
"ai-capabilities",
"livebench"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18208,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 69,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding",
"resolution_source_url": "https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "livebench.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "livebench.ai",
"url": "https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}