Which company's AI will first achieve a score of 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No company | 2026-12-31 | 68.0% | $79 | $18K | B | 0x2f2c1c…ecaf | ||
| Anthropic be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | $44 | $9.7K | B | 0x57678b…f448 | ||
| Google be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 7.2% | $67 | $9.2K | B | 0xc48b0f…a64c | ||
| OpenAI be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 6.1% | $228 | $10K | B | 0xff51f2…c53b | ||
| XAI be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $6 | $6.7K | B | 0xa87276…847e | ||
| DeepSeek be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $6 | $7.1K | B | 0x66ac2e…0485 | ||
| Alibaba be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $6 | $6.5K | B | 0xb5574c…0558 | ||
| Mistral be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $6.3K | B | 0xa1c9cf…9313 | ||
| Z.ai be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $4.7K | B | 0x25d1a9…1c98 | ||
| A company not listed here be the first to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x66a157…e42a | ||
| Company F be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x85fa05…4811 | ||
| Company I be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9cc873…1b63 | ||
| Company K be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc9d246…264d | ||
| Company P be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9d34e6…db7d | ||
| Company T be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x75d5e9…5dda | ||
| Company V be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x64c618…8235 | ||
| Company X be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5a77f5…1eaf | ||
| Company E be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe3e842…7412 | ||
| Company M be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x260264…41e3 | ||
| Company O be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x420b95…ef52 | ||
| Company Q be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6e529e…dede | ||
| Company N be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb4ee2c…5578 | ||
| Company R be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2bca51…3833 | ||
| Company Y be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe9f427…2d11 | ||
| Company D be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x64f55e…9698 | ||
| Company G be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x802fbd…bd0b | ||
| Company H be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xeb0603…db77 | ||
| Company J be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x946cea…0ed4 | ||
| Company L be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x08b111…f0f2 | ||
| Company S be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xaa5fbd…9dce | ||
| Company U be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa14637…92e5 | ||
| Company W be the first company to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1801e0…8489 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (5) · single authority
- lmarena.ai venue-listed
- arena.ai venue-listed
- Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://lmarena.ai/ from rules text · editorial
- https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will a company not listed here be the first to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company F be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company I be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company K be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company P be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company T be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company V be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company X be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company E be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company M be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company O be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company Q be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company N be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company R be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company Y be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company D be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company G be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company H be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company J be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company L be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company S be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company U be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company W be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (23 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4J2HXNW2N4",
"slug": "which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026",
"question": "Which company's AI will first achieve a score of 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"openai",
"ai",
"chatbot-arena",
"model-benchmarks",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 78206,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "arena.ai",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}