CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Which company's AI will first achieve a score of 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]

polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
No company 2026-12-31 68.0%
$79 $18K
B 0x2f2c1c…ecaf
Anthropic be the first company to 2026-12-31 23.0%
$44 $9.7K
B 0x57678b…f448
Google be the first company to 2026-12-31 7.2%
$67 $9.2K
B 0xc48b0f…a64c
OpenAI be the first company to 2026-12-31 6.1%
$228 $10K
B 0xff51f2…c53b
XAI be the first company to 2026-12-31 2.0%
$6 $6.7K
B 0xa87276…847e
DeepSeek be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.1%
$6 $7.1K
B 0x66ac2e…0485
Alibaba be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.1%
$6 $6.5K
B 0xb5574c…0558
Mistral be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.1%
$6.3K
B 0xa1c9cf…9313
Z.ai be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.1%
$4.7K
B 0x25d1a9…1c98
A company not listed here be the first to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x66a157…e42a
Company F be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x85fa05…4811
Company I be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x9cc873…1b63
Company K be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0xc9d246…264d
Company P be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x9d34e6…db7d
Company T be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x75d5e9…5dda
Company V be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x64c618…8235
Company X be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x5a77f5…1eaf
Company E be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0xe3e842…7412
Company M be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x260264…41e3
Company O be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x420b95…ef52
Company Q be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x6e529e…dede
Company N be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0xb4ee2c…5578
Company R be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x2bca51…3833
Company Y be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0xe9f427…2d11
Company D be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x64f55e…9698
Company G be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x802fbd…bd0b
Company H be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0xeb0603…db77
Company J be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x946cea…0ed4
Company L be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x08b111…f0f2
Company S be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0xaa5fbd…9dce
Company U be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0xa14637…92e5
Company W be the first company to 2026-12-31 0.0%
B 0x1801e0…8489
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 32 markets · share this text
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned
sources (5) · single authority
  • lmarena.ai venue-listed
  • arena.ai venue-listed
  • Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard source of record from rules text · editorial
  • https://lmarena.ai/ from rules text · editorial
  • https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
closed Will a company not listed here be the first to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company F be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company I be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company K be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company P be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company T be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company V be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company X be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company E be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company M be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company O be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company Q be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company N be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company R be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company Y be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company D be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company G be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company H be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company J be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company L be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company S be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company U be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Company W be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? polymarket 2026-12-31
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (23 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4J2HXNW2N4",
  "slug": "which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1550-on-chatbot-arena-in-2026",
  "question": "Which company's AI will first achieve a score of 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "openai",
    "ai",
    "chatbot-arena",
    "model-benchmarks",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 32,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 78206,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 65,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "lmarena.ai",
      "url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "arena.ai",
      "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →