Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $102K | C | 0x5f3dab…bfe3 | ||
| Venezuela | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | $180 | $22K | C | 0x5eb396…6d2d | ||
| Saudi Arabia | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $73 | $50K | C | 0x9f4985…8181 | ||
| Indonesia | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $111 | $15K | C | 0x115600…35f0 | ||
| Tunisia | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $12K | C | 0xf4a4b3…a128 | ||
| Syria | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $8 | $17K | C | 0xe7f3b9…724a | ||
| Kuwait | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $1.1K | $12K | C | 0x01248b…eb72 | ||
| Bangladesh | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $8.3K | C | 0xee2199…3f19 | ||
| Cuba | 2026-12-31 | 4.9% | — | $8.2K | C | 0x661301…de1b | ||
| Iraq | 2026-12-31 | 4.7% | — | $12K | C | 0x890cd6…edf6 | ||
| Pakistan | 2026-12-31 | 4.4% | — | $4.3K | C | 0x860001…4ebc | ||
| Iran | 2026-12-31 | 4.2% | — | $12K | C | 0xeadcd7…f3f0 | ||
| Malaysia | 2026-12-31 | 3.7% | — | $12K | C | 0x4b0aad…edac | ||
| Afghanistan | 2026-12-31 | 3.2% | — | $18K | C | 0x7ba444…a929 | ||
| Qatar | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $33K | C | 0x2e02dc…0de7 | ||
| North Korea | 2026-12-31 | 2.9% | — | $18K | C | 0xa8ab74…22ba |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official government information from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Pakistan recognizing Israel by year-end stays at 4% 4% · $15K 24h
- Polymarket prices Pakistan recognizing Israel by December 31 at 4%, a near-zero probability outcome.
- 60% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, a sharp spike into a low-liquidity geopolitical contract.
- Surge likely reflects traders reacting to regional diplomatic news flow around Abraham Accords-adjacent discussions.
- Resolves December 31, 2026.
- Afghanistan recognizing Israel by December 31 trades at 3% 3% · $19K 24h
- Polymarket prices Afghanistan recognizing Israel by year-end at 3%, effectively zero probability.
- 47% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours, a notable surge into a geopolitically implausible contract.
- Likely linked to the same diplomatic news cycle driving the Pakistan-Israel spike, traders testing related claims.
- Resolves December 31, 2026.
- Pakistan recognizing Israel by year-end stays a long shot 6% · $14K 24h
- Polymarket prices Pakistan recognizing Israel by December 31 at 6%, market sees normalization as remote near-term.
- 58% of all-time contract volume traded in 24h, the second-highest relative share in this batch.
- A geopolitical trigger, diplomatic statement, back-channel report, or regional shift, likely drew fresh attention to this tail-risk contract.
- Resolves December 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
"slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31",
"question": "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-recognition",
"international-relations",
"diplomacy",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 353066,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official government information",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}