Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | 2026-12-31 | 17.0% | $113 | $4.3K | C | 0x5f3dab…bfe3 | ||
| Saudi Arabia | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $226 | $14K | C | 0x9f4985…8181 | ||
| Indonesia | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $22 | $1.6K | C | 0x115600…35f0 | ||
| Cuba | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $838 | C | 0x661301…de1b | ||
| Venezuela | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $100 | $4.1K | C | 0x5eb396…6d2d | ||
| Syria | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $296 | $4.6K | C | 0xe7f3b9…724a | ||
| Qatar | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $749 | $4.7K | C | 0x2e02dc…0de7 | ||
| Kuwait | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $1.1K | C | 0x01248b…eb72 | ||
| Bangladesh | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $5.6K | C | 0xee2199…3f19 | ||
| Iran | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $61 | $2.8K | C | 0xeadcd7…f3f0 | ||
| Tunisia | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $5.8K | C | 0xf4a4b3…a128 | ||
| Afghanistan | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $71 | $6.9K | C | 0x7ba444…a929 | ||
| Iraq | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $21 | $204 | C | 0x890cd6…edf6 | ||
| Pakistan | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $1.9K | C | 0x860001…4ebc | ||
| North Korea | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $74 | $908 | C | 0xa8ab74…22ba | ||
| Malaysia | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | — | $4.0K | C | 0x4b0aad…edac |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official government information from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2KCBS1KX88",
"slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31",
"question": "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-recognition",
"international-relations",
"diplomacy",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 63002,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official government information",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}