Will all countries recognize Israel by June 30? [ resolves — ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 15 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30	—	2.1%	—	$2.7K	C	`0xfec12b…ada9`
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30	—	1.2%	$1	$37K	C	`0x87481d…e290`
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30	—	1.2%	$100	$5.2K	C	`0x32711a…2435`
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30	—	1.0%	$55	$14K	C	`0xdf5191…0f1f`
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30	—	1.0%	$31	$2.0K	C	`0x3721f5…5723`
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.8%	$27	$35K	C	`0x344a8f…2e57`
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.6%	$941	$49K	C	`0xc806bd…d075`
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.5%	$32	$51K	C	`0x5e6e46…ee03`
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.5%	$51	$19K	C	`0x7ac4ee…d312`
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.4%	$2	$19K	C	`0x2cb2e2…7ac5`
Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.4%	$40	$7.2K	C	`0x3e4f06…8c09`
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.3%	—	$88K	C	`0xfd0c90…58f1`
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.3%	$55	$26K	C	`0x84872e…f75e`
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.2%	—	$8.8K	C	`0x366e27…25f7`
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30	—	0.0%	$215	$69K	C	`0x274cec…6732`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 15 markets · share this text

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

sources (2)

official government information from rules text · editorial
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-06`	`0%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-07-01T11:21:48+00:00 volume-spike
Heavy flows discount Lebanon-Israel recognition after June 30 3% · $513K 24h
- Polymarket at 3%, market treats formal Lebanon-Israel recognition as a near-dead outcome.
- $513K in 24h represents 35% of all-time volume, a substantial single-session directional flush.
- June 30 deadline has now passed; capital is repricing the miss and positioning for NO resolution.
- Contract resolves imminently; flows reflect late hedgers and arb desks closing exposure.
2026-06-30T10:55:12+00:00 volume-spike
Lebanon-Israel normalization sits deep in long-shot territory 6% · $278K 24h
- Polymarket at 6%, slim but non-trivial probability as the deadline expires today.
- 24h volume $277K is 30% of all-time, suggesting a last-day attention spike.
- No diplomatic framework for formal recognition has emerged; flows likely reflect closing shorts.
- Resolves today; 6% residual price implies a small cohort still sees a surprise scenario.
2026-06-29T12:29:31+00:00 volume-spike
Heavy flows lean against Lebanon-Israel recognition by June 30 18% · $349K 24h
- 18% prices the outcome as a long shot, markets assign roughly 4-in-5 odds against recognition this month.
- $349K in 24h represents 54% of all-time volume, suggesting a sharp catalyst or influential position shift.
- Spike this close to the June 30 deadline implies either a rumor triggering buyers or large holders liquidating longs.
- Contract expires tomorrow; unresolved diplomatic status makes the 18% print a residual risk premium.
2026-06-29T01:47:13+00:00 volume-spike
Lebanon-Israel recognition sits deep in tail-risk territory 18% · $374K 24h
- Polymarket prices 18%, market treats recognition as unlikely but non-trivial inside 24 hours.
- $374K traded in 24h, 68% of all-time volume; majority of lifetime liquidity deployed in a single session.
- Deadline expires tomorrow; surge signals last-hour positioning ahead of contract resolution.
- Resolves June 30, any diplomatic confirmation or denial closes the market within hours.
2026-06-28T10:25:52+00:00 volume-spike
Lebanon, Israel recognition bid sits at even-money into deadline 54% · $207K 24h
- Polymarket marks Lebanon, Israel formal recognition at 54%, a coin-flip with two days remaining.
- $207K in 24h represents 72% of all-time volume, signaling a late-breaking conviction shift.
- Normalization framework talks and U.S. brokerage efforts have accelerated; fresh attention implies near-term diplomatic movement.
- Resolves June 30; binary outcome makes price highly sensitive to any communiqué in the next 48 hours.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C44TBGCDK8",
  "slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will all countries recognize Israel by June 30?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "international-recognition",
    "israel-relations",
    "diplomacy",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 15,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 433215,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 34,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "official government information",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →