Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 31.0% | — | $70K | C | 0xd95a7d…d850 | ||
| Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 27.0% | — | $46K | C | 0xecf32b…4bde | ||
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 24.0% | $129 | $120K | C | 0x632131…7d68 | ||
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $19K | C | 0xd904f9…e2f5 | ||
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 16.0% | $308 | $55K | C | 0x759cea…e4df | ||
| Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | $35 | $38K | C | 0xec0099…866b | ||
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | — | $42K | C | 0x528fbd…2869 | ||
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $1 | $21K | C | 0x0acc45…a7f3 | ||
| Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 7.9% | — | $172K | C | 0x21ce0a…d39c | ||
| Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 5.2% | — | $128K | C | 0xc29194…f9b3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q5JL3M53G5",
"slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027",
"question": "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"international-recognition",
"palestine",
"2026",
"diplomatic-relations",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 711237,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}