Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | 2026-12-31 | 27.0% | — | $46K | C | 0xecf32b…4bde | ||
| New Zealand | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | $52 | $121K | C | 0x632131…7d68 | ||
| Belgium | 2026-12-31 | 19.0% | $216 | $72K | C | 0xd95a7d…d850 | ||
| Italy | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $19K | C | 0xd904f9…e2f5 | ||
| The Netherlands | 2026-12-31 | 15.0% | — | $55K | C | 0x759cea…e4df | ||
| Japan | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $30 | $44K | C | 0x528fbd…2869 | ||
| The US | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $21K | C | 0x0acc45…a7f3 | ||
| Finland | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $3 | $38K | C | 0xec0099…866b | ||
| Austria | 2026-12-31 | 7.5% | — | $172K | C | 0x21ce0a…d39c | ||
| Germany | 2026-12-31 | 5.2% | — | $128K | C | 0xc29194…f9b3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official government information from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q5JL3M53G5",
"slug": "which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027",
"question": "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"international-recognition",
"palestine",
"2026",
"diplomatic-relations",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 717274,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official government information",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}