Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (8D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The United States | 2026-07-31 | 10.0% | $371 | $65K | C | 0x5f55fb…c04c | ||
| Greece | 2026-07-31 | 2.2% | — | $7.6K | C | 0x8eb7ae…67fc | ||
| The United Kingdom | 2026-07-31 | 2.0% | $709 | $145K | C | 0xc6789a…cecf | ||
| Australia | 2026-07-31 | 1.6% | — | $4.3K | C | 0x9aaa5e…bb8e | ||
| Germany | 2026-07-31 | 1.3% | — | $19K | C | 0x6fc2fa…22c4 | ||
| France | 2026-07-31 | 1.2% | $1.9K | $102K | C | 0x607387…64e3 | ||
| Italy | 2026-07-31 | 1.1% | — | $6.8K | C | 0x148d91…44fd | ||
| The Netherlands | 2026-07-31 | 1.0% | $5 | $88K | C | 0x06224e…5e07 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- national government from rules text · editorial
- its military from rules text · editorial
- broad consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-july-31-20260701001952738/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-july-31-20260701001952738 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-july-31-20260701001952738") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XKWRGK1322",
"slug": "which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-july-31-20260701001952738",
"question": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"naval-operations",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"middle-east",
"2026",
"maritime-security"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 437154,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 46,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "national government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "its military",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "broad consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}