Will Trump make new trade deals with at least one country before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 17 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 60.0% | — | $2.4K | C | 0x5cbca9…2ee7 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 27.0% | — | $366 | C | 0x9121e5…edf0 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 24.0% | — | $48K | C | 0x533aab…b391 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 21.0% | — | $372 | C | 0xc77d51…4488 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | $5 | $16K | C | 0xfe61b0…1b73 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | $78 | $56K | C | 0xcc9b5e…807d | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $419 | C | 0xdabf29…fed7 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | — | $2.7K | C | 0x81e8f9…3df8 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | — | $5.3K | C | 0xd60f9b…62b7 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $19K | C | 0xffe86f…837a | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 10.7% | — | $13K | C | 0xdb3df0…500f | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 10.7% | $20 | $32K | C | 0x42520d…7d5c | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $6.1K | C | 0x7531c6…afb3 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $21K | C | 0x2b23c9…9fe5 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $104K | C | 0x85ad30…a42e | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $458 | $4.1K | C | 0x66cbd4…b729 | ||
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $5 | $2.0K | C | 0x5b2d1c…75da |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
"slug": "which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921",
"question": "Will Trump make new trade deals with at least one country before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"trade-policy",
"trump-administration",
"bilateral-deals",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 332867,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 49,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}