Which country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somaliland | 2026-12-31 | 35.0% | $140 | $68K | C | 0x82ec29…4942 | ||
| Egypt | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | — | $69 | C | 0x428fbb…66f0 | ||
| Turkey | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | — | $217 | C | 0x6cc27a…e183 | ||
| Jordan | 2026-12-31 | 19.0% | — | $81 | C | 0x160a3d…a79b | ||
| Lebanon | 2026-12-31 | 15.0% | $1 | $60K | C | 0xd826ba…4f13 | ||
| Kuwait | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $4.2K | $47K | C | 0x4e4d65…e888 | ||
| Saudi Arabia | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $3.8K | $169K | C | 0x15f442…8ec6 | ||
| Oman | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $227 | $162K | C | 0xc1bd3b…4237 | ||
| Syria | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $2 | $148K | C | 0x985b12…8e7f | ||
| Qatar | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $8 | C | 0xf164c1…c982 | ||
| Azerbaijan | 2026-12-31 | 2.4% | $857 | $53K | C | 0x0150e8…89d9 | ||
| Pakistan | 2026-12-31 | — | $8 | $161 | C | 0x91825d…376d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official government statements from rules text · editorial
- a consensus for credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RDHKNVDMQ6",
"slug": "which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027",
"question": "Which country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"abraham-accords",
"middle-east",
"diplomatic-recognition",
"2026",
"international-relations"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 707967,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official government statements",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus for credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}