Which party will Trump endorse in the 2026 Israeli election? [ resolves 2026-10-28 (85D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 23 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endorse UTJ | 2026-10-28 | 89.0% | — | $618 | C | 0x8cafc8…723b | ||
| Endorse Likud | 2026-10-28 | 65.0% | $526 | $11K | C | 0x476ed5…1f85 | ||
| Not endorse a Party | 2026-10-28 | 30.0% | — | $1.8K | C | 0x74f522…f21b | ||
| Endorse Yashar | 2026-10-28 | 4.0% | — | $478 | C | 0x6636cb…4cfe | ||
| Endorse Together | 2026-10-28 | 3.3% | — | $485 | C | 0xfd5a2d…9ffd | ||
| Endorse Blue and White | 2026-10-28 | 1.9% | — | $772 | C | 0x3b6bd0…62a4 | ||
| Endorse Religious Zionism | 2026-10-28 | 1.0% | — | $323 | C | 0x7dd839…ac01 | ||
| Endorse Otzma Yehudit | 2026-10-28 | 0.2% | — | $460 | C | 0x8e3890…351a | ||
| Endorse Shas | 2026-10-28 | 0.1% | — | $368 | C | 0x9c7c67…3118 | ||
| Endorse Yisrael Beiteinu | 2026-10-28 | 0.1% | — | $290 | C | 0x2b5d30…2714 | ||
| Endorse Hadash–Ta'al | 2026-10-28 | 0.1% | — | $285 | C | 0xbbb292…29ad | ||
| Endorse Democrats | 2026-10-28 | 0.1% | — | $310 | C | 0xa37253…0a27 | ||
| Endorse New Hope | 2026-10-28 | 0.1% | — | $343 | C | 0x4bb83c…df5c | ||
| Endorse Noam | 2026-10-28 | 0.1% | — | $310 | C | 0x088968…8038 | ||
| Endorse Party B | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xebe979…6844 | ||
| Endorse Party C | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4056e0…96fc | ||
| Endorse Party D | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4adece…c388 | ||
| Endorse Party E | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa15ce4…3d37 | ||
| Endorse Party F | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x68e18c…5528 | ||
| Endorse Party G | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x93d0b7…ece2 | ||
| Endorse Party H | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8812d4…e075 | ||
| Endorse Party I | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x74d410…cb88 | ||
| Endorse another party | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x97cb76…123d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve based on which party Donald Trump announces that he supports, endorses, or otherwise tells people to vote for in the 2026 Israeli legislative election.
In the event that Donald Trump endorses a candidate to be Prime Minister of Israel, this market will resolve in favor of the party that the individual represents as of the time of the endorsement or, if such individual does not represent a party, to the next party that the individual unambiguously represents.
In the event that Donald Trump issues a qualifying endorsement of more than one candidate or party, it will be considered an endorsement of only either the party who was first endorsed or, should such a temporal determination not be possible, in alphabetical order of the endorsed parties.
Statements that are clearly sarcastic, jokes, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support shall not be considered relevant for purposes of this market.
If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the earliest of either December 31, 2026, or the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Endorsement".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-trump-endorse-in-the-2026-israeli-election-20260610144125261/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-party-will-trump-endorse-in-the-2026-israeli-election-20260610144125261 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-party-will-trump-endorse-in-the-2026-israeli-election-20260610144125261") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YN45YGYT49",
"slug": "which-party-will-trump-endorse-in-the-2026-israeli-election-20260610144125261",
"question": "Which party will Trump endorse in the 2026 Israeli election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"israel-politics",
"2026-election",
"political-endorsement",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 23,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17629,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}