Which party will Trump endorse in the 2026 Israeli election? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2027-01 ]
Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 23 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endorse Party B | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xebe979…6844 | ||
| Endorse Party C | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4056e0…96fc | ||
| Endorse Party D | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4adece…c388 | ||
| Endorse Party E | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa15ce4…3d37 | ||
| Endorse Party F | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x68e18c…5528 | ||
| Endorse Party G | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x93d0b7…ece2 | ||
| Endorse Party H | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8812d4…e075 | ||
| Endorse Party I | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x74d410…cb88 | ||
| Endorse another party | 2026-10-28 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x97cb76…123d | ||
| Endorse Likud | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | $526 | $11K | C | 0x476ed5…1f85 | ||
| Endorse Together | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $485 | C | 0xfd5a2d…9ffd | ||
| Endorse Shas | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $368 | C | 0x9c7c67…3118 | ||
| Endorse Blue and White | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $772 | C | 0x3b6bd0…62a4 | ||
| Endorse Religious Zionism | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $323 | C | 0x7dd839…ac01 | ||
| Endorse UTJ | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $618 | C | 0x8cafc8…723b | ||
| Endorse Otzma Yehudit | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $460 | C | 0x8e3890…351a | ||
| Endorse Yisrael Beiteinu | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $290 | C | 0x2b5d30…2714 | ||
| Endorse Yashar | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $478 | C | 0x6636cb…4cfe | ||
| Endorse Hadash–Ta'al | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $285 | C | 0xbbb292…29ad | ||
| Endorse Democrats | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $310 | C | 0xa37253…0a27 | ||
| Endorse New Hope | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $343 | C | 0x4bb83c…df5c | ||
| Endorse Noam | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $310 | C | 0x088968…8038 | ||
| Not endorse a Party | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | $1.8K | C | 0x74f522…f21b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve based on which party Donald Trump announces that he supports, endorses, or otherwise tells people to vote for in the 2026 Israeli legislative election.
In the event that Donald Trump endorses a candidate to be Prime Minister of Israel, this market will resolve in favor of the party that the individual represents as of the time of the endorsement or, if such individual does not represent a party, to the next party that the individual unambiguously represents.
In the event that Donald Trump issues a qualifying endorsement of more than one candidate or party, it will be considered an endorsement of only either the party who was first endorsed or, should such a temporal determination not be possible, in alphabetical order of the endorsed parties.
Statements that are clearly sarcastic, jokes, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support shall not be considered relevant for purposes of this market.
If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the earliest of either December 31, 2026, or the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Endorsement".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives from rules text a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Trump endorse Yashar in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse Hadash–Ta'al in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse Noam in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse Otzma Yehudit in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse Shas in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse Religious Zionism in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse Together in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse Blue and White in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse UTJ in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse Yisrael Beiteinu in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse New Hope in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump endorse Democrats in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 0% |
| YES | Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election? | polymarket | 2026-10-18 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (14 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-trump-endorse-in-the-2026-israeli-election-20260610144125261/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-party-will-trump-endorse-in-the-2026-israeli-election-20260610144125261 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-party-will-trump-endorse-in-the-2026-israeli-election-20260610144125261") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YN45YGYT49",
"slug": "which-party-will-trump-endorse-in-the-2026-israeli-election-20260610144125261",
"question": "Which party will Trump endorse in the 2026 Israeli election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"israel-politics",
"2026-election",
"political-endorsement",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 23,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17629,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}