Will the Republican Party win control of the House of Representatives in 2026? [ resolves 2025-07 – 2026-11 ]
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party A | 2025-07-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa06d94…cc5c | ||
| Party B | 2025-07-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xad6bb7…9060 | ||
| Party C | 2025-07-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3f85f4…28d7 | ||
| Party D | 2025-07-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7e2127…6290 | ||
| Party E | 2025-07-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x242c27…7265 | ||
| Party F | 2025-07-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6b4403…7d77 | ||
| Another party | 2025-07-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc2f2e9…8edb | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 87.0% | $64K | $4.99M | C | 0xd5d9fc…1bb4 | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 13.0% | $5.5K | $4.05M | C | 0x4e4f77…1928 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Republicans heavily favored to win House control in 2026 Polymarket 90%
- The Polymarket contract on Republicans winning House control in 2026 is priced at 90%, a strongly favored outcome.
- Democrats blocking the Supreme Court cap amendment is a routine partisan vote consistent with the current Republican majority environment the 90% price implies.
- Trump vowing to campaign in 35 midterm races (Story 12) and the government funding bill passing bipartisanly (Story 13) add further midterm context without shifting this contract's direction.
- Resolution is tied to the official 2026 midterm election results and House seat counts, via an unspecified resolution source.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
"slug": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Republican Party win control of the House of Representatives in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"2026-midterms",
"party-control",
"us-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9041518,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}