Which party will win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 65.0% | $10K | $2.16M | C | 0x307a1e…38f3 | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 54.0% | $6.7K | $1.52M | C | 0x86bfb5…2587 | ||
| Party A | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x75e838…fcf2 | ||
| Party B | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7ede7e…0871 | ||
| Party C | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5e5c20…4f32 | ||
| Party D | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8cb80b…afb8 | ||
| Party E | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x86567e…a21e | ||
| Party F | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa797f7…57ee | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9e856e…e6a5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Democrats winning Senate control holds near 37 percent Polymarket 63%
- Polymarket prices Republicans winning the US Senate at 63%, leaving Democrats at an implied 37%, per the uma_oracle-resolved contract.
- Taxpayer-funded Trump ads signal incumbent GOP concern, but the market is not moving to reflect a dramatic Democratic surge.
- The Kalshi at-least-one-chamber contract at 61% is directionally consistent, suggesting markets see moderate but not decisive Republican advantage.
- Resolves via uma_oracle after the 2026 election is called; recounts or runoffs in key states could delay settlement.
- Democrats favored to take Senate control in 2026 midterms Polymarket 63%
- The Polymarket contract on the Democratic Party winning control of the US Senate in the 2026 election prices at 63%.
- Trump's taxpayer-funded campaign-style advertising is drawing scrutiny weeks before the midterms, consistent with a market that prices Democrats as modest Senate favorites.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber sits at 62%, implying markets see the House as the more likely Republican retention vehicle.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle based on official Senate election outcomes following the November 2026 midterms.
- Democrats stay favored to win Senate control in 2026 Polymarket 65%
- Polymarket puts Democrats winning Senate control at 65%, a clear but not dominant majority.
- The 8.6-point Democratic polling lead in Quantus Insights data is directionally consistent with Polymarket's 65% Democrat-favored read.
- Companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at 60%, implying markets see a split-Congress outcome as plausible.
- Resolution via uma oracle on Polymarket ties to certified election results; any prolonged count or runoff could delay settlement.
- Republican Senate control holds above 50% as early voting starts Polymarket 61%
- The Polymarket contract prices Republican Senate control at 61%, a modest but clear lean toward the GOP with weeks remaining before November.
- Early voting has begun; the market is slightly above 50%, suggesting the race is genuinely competitive despite a Republican edge.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress sits at 59%, consistent with the Senate-specific Polymarket read.
- Resolves via uma_oracle based on official election results; redistricting complexity and the Trump/Fed rate controversy may be live variables into Election Day.
- Republicans favored to take Senate in 2026 midterms Polymarket 61%
- Polymarket puts 61% odds on Republicans winning control of the US Senate in the 2026 election.
- Early voting opening is consistent with a race still in progress; the market's 61% reflects a lean, not a certainty, as ballots are just beginning to be cast.
- The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at 59%, suggesting both venues see a modest GOP edge rather than a commanding lead.
- Resolution via uma_oracle upon certified election results; early-voting composition shifts could move these contracts as state-level returns emerge.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
"slug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
"question": "Which party will win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"congress",
"us-senate",
"2026-midterms",
"party-control"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3679833,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}