Will the Clarity Act receive support from specific Senators? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 15 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Thom Tillis	2027-01-01	67.0%	$979	$4.7K	A	`0x6c6a37…38bc`
Jerry Moran	2027-01-01	55.0%	—	$4.1K	A	`0x36f84d…be32`
Mike Lee	2027-01-01	47.0%	$99	$2.2K	A	`0x8e469a…a501`
Kirsten Gillibrand	2027-01-01	45.0%	—	$241	A	`0xac2b28…e1ae`
Ruben Gallego	2027-01-01	40.0%	$11	$5.9K	A	`0x4ebbd8…5d36`
Josh Hawley	2027-01-01	29.0%	$564	$1.2K	A	`0xa7d6e2…5dba`
Lisa Blunt Rochester	2027-01-01	23.0%	—	$1.5K	A	`0xad092a…8f56`
Andy Kim	2027-01-01	22.8%	—	$175	A	`0x2dc652…6f6a`
Catherine Cortez Masto	2027-01-01	22.0%	$375	$1.2K	A	`0xc51a03…2c61`
Raphael Warnock	2027-01-01	22.0%	—	$732	A	`0x493cf4…7df2`
Mark Warner	2027-01-01	21.0%	$58	$1.4K	A	`0xf04120…da67`
Rand Paul	2027-01-01	15.0%	—	$135	A	`0x2f5b7c…4669`
Jacky Rosen	2027-01-01	12.0%	$69	$3.8K	A	`0x0aac6c…f80b`
Alex Padilla	2027-01-01	2.0%	—	$520	A	`0x60d720…c268`
John Fetterman	2027-01-01	—	—	$83	A	`0x938ebb…d7df`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 15 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (5) · single authority

polymarket.com venue-listed
senate.gov source of record venue-listed
congress.gov venue-listed
official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) from rules text · editorial
Library of Congress (http://congress.gov) from rules text · editorial

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VH1SRD9819",
  "slug": "which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658",
  "question": "Will the Clarity Act receive support from specific Senators?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "congress",
    "senate-voting",
    "legislation",
    "clarity-act",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 15,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 27969,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "http://senate.gov",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "senate.gov",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "polymarket.com",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "senate.gov",
      "url": "http://senate.gov",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "congress.gov",
      "url": "http://congress.gov",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "Library of Congress (http://congress.gov)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →