Will any states use new congressional maps in the midterms? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 2026-11-03 | 95.2% | $21 | $12K | C | 0xbd71ab…f762 | ||
| North Carolina | 2026-11-03 | 94.7% | — | $12K | C | 0x295eb7…36fd | ||
| Ohio | 2026-11-03 | 94.0% | $244 | $6.6K | C | 0x96ca8e…72db | ||
| Texas | 2026-11-03 | 92.0% | — | $7.2K | C | 0x964b5e…505f | ||
| Utah | 2026-11-03 | 89.0% | — | $67K | C | 0x3e9c56…3935 | ||
| Missouri | 2026-11-03 | 82.0% | — | $4.0K | C | 0x083d32…885c | ||
| Florida | 2026-11-03 | 82.0% | $481 | $2.1K | C | 0x077655…e077 | ||
| Alabama | 2026-11-03 | 71.0% | $11 | $16K | C | 0xa4c7f4…2d20 | ||
| Louisiana | 2026-11-03 | 69.0% | — | $16K | C | 0xc41817…955a | ||
| South Carolina | 2026-11-03 | 12.0% | — | $27K | C | 0x04f0b7…12b0 | ||
| Washington | 2026-11-03 | 8.0% | — | $6.1K | C | 0x14ca9a…3aa9 | ||
| Kansas | 2026-11-03 | 6.0% | — | $6.2K | C | 0x4abe6b…8077 | ||
| New Jersey | 2026-11-03 | 6.0% | — | $5.0K | C | 0xf16497…2eca | ||
| Indiana | 2026-11-03 | 6.0% | $672 | $31K | C | 0x4596d8…3b78 | ||
| Virginia | 2026-11-03 | 5.0% | $30 | $7.1K | C | 0x4a4ed8…c85e | ||
| Wisconsin | 2026-11-03 | 4.8% | — | $19K | C | 0xdd6a68…1c60 | ||
| Maryland | 2026-11-03 | 4.7% | $1.3K | $12K | C | 0x7bbeb4…1896 | ||
| Georgia | 2026-11-03 | 4.2% | $546 | $7.3K | C | 0xb4f4bf…3222 | ||
| Illinois | 2026-11-03 | 4.1% | — | $11K | C | 0xff4699…9f73 | ||
| Nebraska | 2026-11-03 | 4.1% | $312 | $6.9K | C | 0xe36942…c801 | ||
| New York | 2026-11-03 | 3.0% | $11 | $15K | C | 0xfdc5d8…5339 | ||
| Minnesota | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | $92 | $9.7K | C | 0x66a685…fc63 | ||
| Tennessee | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 2181944 | ||
| Mississippi | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 2181945 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is:
- Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority;
- Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and
- In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the listed state from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Tennessee use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-03 | — |
| closed | Will Mississippi use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-03 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-the-midterms/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-the-midterms |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-the-midterms") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P218PM4GG4",
"slug": "which-states-will-use-new-congressional-maps-in-the-midterms",
"question": "Will any states use new congressional maps in the midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"redistricting",
"2026-midterms",
"us-congress",
"state-legislatures"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 305910,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the listed state",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}