Will the winner of the Alaska Governor primary advance to the general election? [ resolves 2026-08-18 (14D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Begich | 2026-08-18 | 92.9% | — | $13K | B | 0xe96f81…2ae8 | ||
| Bernadette Wilson | 2026-08-18 | 76.0% | $26 | $16K | B | 0x39dc2c…ca83 | ||
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 2026-08-18 | 73.0% | $128 | $4.3K | B | 0xdfa9c2…ff24 | ||
| Dave Bronson | 2026-08-18 | 50.0% | $46 | $2.8K | B | 0x7fdfdf…a762 | ||
| Click Bishop | 2026-08-18 | 37.0% | $25 | $42K | B | 0x3342ec…2170 | ||
| Bill Walker | 2026-08-18 | 32.0% | — | $454 | B | 0xef8afe…4300 | ||
| Treg Taylor | 2026-08-18 | 29.0% | $30 | $66K | B | 0x77396e…c4df | ||
| Gregg Brelsford | 2026-08-18 | 10.0% | — | $171 | B | 0xd3ce92…942d | ||
| Shelley Hughes | 2026-08-18 | 4.3% | — | $3.2K | B | 0xc9fd5b…7e4d | ||
| Adam Crum | 2026-08-18 | 4.0% | — | $6.9K | B | 0x73ed39…fe91 | ||
| Lesil McGuire | 2026-08-18 | 3.0% | — | $240 | B | 0x53b57e…81c0 | ||
| Matt Heilala | 2026-08-18 | 2.3% | — | $3.8K | B | 0x24853c…70fc | ||
| Matt Claman | 2026-08-18 | 1.4% | $153 | $39K | B | 0x4427ce…5f8d | ||
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 2026-08-18 | 1.2% | $2 | $14K | B | 0xc42165…1127 | ||
| Jessica Faircloth | 2026-08-18 | 1.1% | — | $156 | B | 0xe3ca06…064d | ||
| Hank Kroll | 2026-08-18 | 1.1% | — | $1.9K | B | 0xd4e583…f318 | ||
| Bruce Walden | 2026-08-18 | 0.6% | $25 | $2.4K | B | 0x1b752e…e7ef | ||
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | B | 0xb8e253…b878 | ||
| Edna DeVries | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $13K | B | 0xe70dc5…d762 | ||
| James Parkin | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $2.6K | B | 0xd7afa8…ec6e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.
This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- State of Alaska Division of Elections source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T97Q44M684",
"slug": "who-will-advance-from-the-alaska-governor-primary",
"question": "Will the winner of the Alaska Governor primary advance to the general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"alaska",
"2026",
"governor-primary",
"us-state-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 231756,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "State of Alaska Division of Elections",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "State of Alaska Division of Elections",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}