CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will anyone announce a Presidential run before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 72 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Kamala Harris announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 23.0%
$17 $30K
C 0x36114d…5873
Ted Cruz announce a presidential 2026-12-31 23.0%
$12K
C 0x89ff74…a7a1
J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 19.0%
$2.4K
C 0x1d4c55…be8b
Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential 2026-12-31 18.0%
$14K
C 0x71dcc7…97bc
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 17.0%
$9 $34K
C 0x59a624…a803
Tucker Carlson announce a presidential 2026-12-31 17.0%
$12K
C 0x2387ae…79dd
Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 17.0%
$9.2K
C 0xd9a9a7…c565
Josh Hawley announce a presidential 2026-12-31 16.5%
$3.4K
C 0xb699ad…0e99
Marco Rubio announce a presidential 2026-12-31 16.0%
$4.7K
C 0x5006bf…5c95
Mark Kelly announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 16.0%
$6.0K
C 0x0cdc3b…38f4
Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 15.0%
$6.3K
C 0xbfff23…b3f6
John Fetterman announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 15.0%
$5.0K
C 0xa27ff8…d3ad
Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 15.0%
$60 $54K
C 0x809eaa…7b5c
Candace Owens announce a presidential 2026-12-31 14.3%
$152 $2.2K
C 0x2aef67…abfc
Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential 2026-12-31 13.7%
$4.7K
C 0x7c6a08…8865
J.D. Vance announce a presidential 2026-12-31 13.0%
$21K
C 0x53141d…91f3
Steve Bannon announce a presidential 2026-12-31 13.0%
$12K
C 0x60cb90…78a5
Mark Cuban announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 12.0%
$2.2K
C 0x888f97…0e93
Donald Trump announce a presidential 2026-12-31 11.9%
$43 $9.2K
C 0xf4e255…3d0f
Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 11.3%
$5.9K
C 0x3ea2f7…64cd
Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 11.0%
$14 $15K
C 0x78305c…db8f
Andy Beshear announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 11.0%
$4.7K
C 0x6d7bc6…9cbc
Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 11.0%
$2.2K
C 0x190b49…f115
Greg Abbott announce a presidential 2026-12-31 10.0%
$1.9K
C 0xb1d3e0…8ec3
Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential 2026-12-31 10.0%
$4.6K
C 0xe5f107…5fac
Matt Gaetz announce a presidential 2026-12-31 10.0%
$100 $2.7K
C 0xa0d689…0b77
Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential 2026-12-31 10.0%
$5.6K
C 0xfc2228…c23a
Andrew Yang announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 9.6%
$8.9K
C 0x50b12c…b02c
Kristi Noem announce a presidential 2026-12-31 9.5%
$20K
C 0x2651d3…3530
Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 9.0%
$1.4K
C 0x8e7c4e…a7b7
Cory Booker announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 9.0%
$11K
C 0xa09707…0fee
Jared Polis announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 9.0%
$3.9K
C 0x4e5d47…79fb
Brian Kemp announce a presidential 2026-12-31 9.0%
$2.5K
C 0xdacc70…9e34
Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 9.0%
$30 $7.7K
C 0xdbaef0…4f5f
Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 9.0%
$771
C 0x3e6115…64a7
Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 9.0%
$1.8K $16K
C 0xe88fde…abc8
Byron Donalds announce a presidential 2026-12-31 9.0%
$6.5K
C 0xb8f08e…b733
Gina Raimondo announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 8.1%
$3.7K
C 0x579e14…392f
Rand Paul announce a presidential 2026-12-31 8.0%
$2 $17K
C 0x4b5722…ac64
Tom Brady announce a presidential 2026-12-31 8.0%
$9.2K
C 0x6217f9…ef8b
Tim Walz announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 8.0%
$4.1K
C 0x754838…cd47
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential 2026-12-31 7.5%
$30 $14K
C 0xf7f9d3…5d2c
Ron DeSantis announce a presidential 2026-12-31 7.0%
$22 $2.0K
C 0x30094b…ad3f
Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential 2026-12-31 7.0%
$5.4K
C 0xf618b0…877a
John Thune announce a presidential 2026-12-31 7.0%
$2.8K
C 0xab2678…657b
Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential 2026-12-31 7.0%
$7.2K
C 0xb613a1…4efb
Michelle Obama announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 6.3%
$12K
C 0x5289dd…9386
Ivanka Trump announce a presidential 2026-12-31 6.3%
$29K
C 0x3a4346…0fdb
Roy Cooper announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 6.0%
$3.7K
C 0x8dc4ec…6871
Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 6.0%
$6.0K
C 0xe33dc2…fd2e
George Clooney announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 6.0%
$761 $4.9K
C 0xa4c8a7…77f9
Don Lemon announce a presidential 2026-12-31 6.0%
$17
C 0x0c7e70…e676
Erika Kirk announce a presidential 2026-12-31 5.9%
$22K
C 0xba4fd9…cd85
Wes Moore announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 5.0%
$12 $6.6K
C 0x3ec944…39fa
Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 4.4%
$3 $35K
C 0x5c0140…319f
Hunter Biden announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 4.3%
$2.7K $43K
C 0xe147f7…60ba
Nikki Haley announce a presidential 2026-12-31 4.3%
$3.1K
C 0xa01945…8848
Barack Obama announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 4.2%
$7.2K
C 0x62526f…9faa
Elise Stefanik announce a presidential 2026-12-31 4.1%
$3.5K
C 0xf010e4…d624
Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 4.0%
$1.3K $11K
C 0x9a65d6…3958
Jon Stewart announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 4.0%
$1.9K
C 0x9c3836…7221
Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 4.0%
$1 $2.9K
C 0x6c08d3…e5b1
Elon Musk announce a presidential 2026-12-31 4.0%
$8.8K
C 0xb6ca1f…a6d1
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 3.0%
$3.5K $7.0K
C 0xf73413…333a
Phil Murphy announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 2.3%
$2.6K
C 0xc929dc…6c74
LeBron James announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 2.0%
$15K
C 0xda431b…3128
Mike Pence announce a presidential 2026-12-31 2.0%
$14K
C 0xe1e8c1…458e
MrBeast announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 1.9%
$26K
C 0x152e3b…0f9c
Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 1.2%
$120 $13K
C 0x2aa539…46f2
Katie Britt announce a presidential 2026-12-31 1.1%
$21K
C 0x878030…defd
Liz Cheney announce a Presidential 2026-12-31 $79
C 0x7c75f4…61b3
Candace Owens announce a presidential 2026-12-31 0.0%
C 0x75389b…79ef
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers uncommitted not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 72 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
closed Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027? polymarket 2026-12-31
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WMQ7GM282",
  "slug": "who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027",
  "question": "Will anyone announce a Presidential run before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026-us-politics",
    "presidential-announcements",
    "candidate-declarations",
    "political-news"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 72,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 728648,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 52,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →