Will anyone announce a Presidential run before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 72 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $14K | C | 0xd9a9a7…c565 | ||
| Kamala Harris announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $60 | $53K | C | 0x36114d…5873 | ||
| Mark Kelly announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $30 | $8.7K | C | 0x0cdc3b…38f4 | ||
| Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $223 | $62K | C | 0x809eaa…7b5c | ||
| Andy Beshear announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $165 | $10.0K | C | 0x6d7bc6…9cbc | ||
| Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $725 | $12K | C | 0xbfff23…b3f6 | ||
| Tucker Carlson announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $111 | $17K | C | 0x2387ae…79dd | ||
| Rand Paul announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $86 | $19K | C | 0x4b5722…ac64 | ||
| Steve Bannon announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $16K | C | 0x60cb90…78a5 | ||
| Candace Owens announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 7.1% | $50 | $8.1K | C | 0x2aef67…abfc | ||
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $42K | C | 0x59a624…a803 | ||
| George Clooney announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $5.2K | C | 0xa4c8a7…77f9 | ||
| Brian Kemp announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $206 | $3.2K | C | 0xdacc70…9e34 | ||
| Matt Gaetz announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $59 | $3.0K | C | 0xa0d689…0b77 | ||
| Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $197 | $20K | C | 0x71dcc7…97bc | ||
| Ted Cruz announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.9% | — | $15K | C | 0x89ff74…a7a1 | ||
| Don Lemon announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.3% | — | $1.8K | C | 0x0c7e70…e676 | ||
| Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $166 | $1.8K | C | 0x3e6115…64a7 | ||
| Mark Cuban announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $1 | $8.5K | C | 0x888f97…0e93 | ||
| Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $2.9K | C | 0x190b49…f115 | ||
| J.D. Vance announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $29K | C | 0x53141d…91f3 | ||
| Marco Rubio announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.2% | $16 | $9.6K | C | 0x5006bf…5c95 | ||
| Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $9.7K | C | 0xdbaef0…4f5f | ||
| Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $17K | C | 0x78305c…db8f | ||
| J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $67 | $3.6K | C | 0x1d4c55…be8b | ||
| Elon Musk announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $48 | $9.3K | C | 0xb6ca1f…a6d1 | ||
| Greg Abbott announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.7% | $5 | $4.0K | C | 0xb1d3e0…8ec3 | ||
| Kristi Noem announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.5% | — | $20K | C | 0x2651d3…3530 | ||
| Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.4% | — | $6.0K | C | 0xfc2228…c23a | ||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.4% | $105 | $15K | C | 0xf7f9d3…5d2c | ||
| Donald Trump announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.3% | $1.4K | $58K | C | 0xf4e255…3d0f | ||
| Erika Kirk announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.1% | $32 | $24K | C | 0xba4fd9…cd85 | ||
| Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | — | $5.6K | C | 0xf618b0…877a | ||
| Ron DeSantis announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $14 | $2.4K | C | 0x30094b…ad3f | ||
| Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $133 | $7.9K | C | 0xb613a1…4efb | ||
| Cory Booker announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.8% | $101 | $15K | C | 0xa09707…0fee | ||
| Jon Stewart announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.4% | $5 | $3.5K | C | 0x9c3836…7221 | ||
| Hunter Biden announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.4% | $127 | $51K | C | 0xe147f7…60ba | ||
| Ivanka Trump announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.4% | $201 | $34K | C | 0x3a4346…0fdb | ||
| Gina Raimondo announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.2% | $42 | $4.2K | C | 0x579e14…392f | ||
| Wes Moore announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $50 | $6.9K | C | 0x3ec944…39fa | ||
| Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $97 | $20K | C | 0x8e7c4e…a7b7 | ||
| Nikki Haley announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $3.4K | C | 0xa01945…8848 | ||
| Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.7% | — | $14K | C | 0x9a65d6…3958 | ||
| Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.6% | $100 | $35K | C | 0x5c0140…319f | ||
| Elise Stefanik announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.6% | — | $3.7K | C | 0xf010e4…d624 | ||
| MrBeast announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.4% | — | $29K | C | 0x152e3b…0f9c | ||
| Liz Cheney announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | — | $2.8K | C | 0x7c75f4…61b3 | ||
| Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | — | $13K | C | 0x2aa539…46f2 | ||
| Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.9% | — | $3.4K | C | 0x6c08d3…e5b1 | ||
| Jared Polis announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.8% | $375 | $6.1K | C | 0x4e5d47…79fb | ||
| LeBron James announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.8% | — | $16K | C | 0xda431b…3128 | ||
| Josh Hawley announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.8% | — | $7.9K | C | 0xb699ad…0e99 | ||
| Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.4% | $1 | $6.6K | C | 0xe33dc2…fd2e | ||
| Barack Obama announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | $133 | $11K | C | 0x62526f…9faa | ||
| Phil Murphy announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | — | $3.8K | C | 0xc929dc…6c74 | ||
| Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | $182 | $9.8K | C | 0x3ea2f7…64cd | ||
| John Thune announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | $198 | $4.8K | C | 0xab2678…657b | ||
| Tim Walz announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $123 | $5.8K | C | 0x754838…cd47 | ||
| Michelle Obama announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $30 | $14K | C | 0x5289dd…9386 | ||
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $11K | C | 0xf73413…333a | ||
| Mike Pence announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $16K | C | 0xe1e8c1…458e | ||
| Byron Donalds announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | — | $10K | C | 0xb8f08e…b733 | ||
| Katie Britt announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | — | $26K | C | 0x878030…defd | ||
| Tom Brady announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | $93 | $9.6K | C | 0x6217f9…ef8b | ||
| John Fetterman announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $51 | $7.0K | C | 0xa27ff8…d3ad | ||
| Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $165 | $17K | C | 0xe88fde…abc8 | ||
| Andrew Yang announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $120 | $14K | C | 0x50b12c…b02c | ||
| Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $92 | $6.3K | C | 0x7c6a08…8865 | ||
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $158 | $7.8K | C | 0xe5f107…5fac | ||
| Roy Cooper announce a Presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $200 | $6.6K | C | 0x8dc4ec…6871 | ||
| Candace Owens announce a presidential | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x75389b…79ef |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Odds hold low on a Trump 2028 run announcement 9% · $27K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Trump presidential-run announcement before 2027 at 9%, market treats it as unlikely near-term.
- 55% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, a concentrated spike on a question with thin prior liquidity.
- Political speculation around Trump's post-midterm positioning likely catalyzed fresh bets.
- Resolves before Jan 1, 2027; any formal campaign filing would resolve YES immediately.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4WMQ7GM282",
"slug": "who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027",
"question": "Will anyone announce a Presidential run before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"presidential-run",
"us-politics",
"candidate-announcements"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 72,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1002793,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}