Will Keir Starmer be Prime Minister and form a cabinet by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Will Liz Kendall be in the Burnham cabinet?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabana Mahmood | 2026-07-20 | 99.9% | — | $2.1K | C | 0xf1b94c…4da5 | ||
| Louise Haigh | 2026-07-20 | 99.9% | — | $3.6K | C | 0x5712d7…ec82 | ||
| Ed Miliband | 2026-07-20 | 99.9% | — | $8.0K | C | 0xf8682f…978b | ||
| John Healey | 2026-07-20 | 99.9% | — | $2.4K | C | 0x9f8895…ec2d | ||
| Pat McFadden | 2026-07-20 | 99.9% | — | $1.3K | C | 0x523082…3ffc | ||
| Yvette Cooper | 2026-07-20 | 99.9% | — | $11K | C | 0x396fce…ebe5 | ||
| Lisa Nandy | 2026-07-21 | 99.9% | — | $8.5K | C | 0x9660bf…0721 | ||
| Wes Streeting | 2026-07-21 | 99.6% | — | $9.4K | C | 0x907b30…3c40 | ||
| Angela Rayner | 2026-07-21 | 99.9% | — | $8.7K | C | 0x1148ba…a3a7 | ||
| Jonathan Reynolds | 2026-07-21 | 98.2% | — | $4.0K | C | 0xfc0943…ff86 | ||
| Alan Campbell | 2026-07-21 | 99.9% | — | $7.2K | C | 0x3d621d…f1ca | ||
| Heidi Alexander | 2026-07-21 | 99.8% | — | $9.8K | C | 0xf1efcf…1c52 | ||
| Bridget Phillipson | 2026-07-21 | 99.9% | — | $22K | C | 0x077ec2…a8fa | ||
| Liz Kendall | 2026-12-31 | 35.7% | — | $2.2K | C | 0x890fd9…a2e1 | ||
| Catherine West | 2026-12-31 | 8.4% | $15 | $7.4K | C | 0x3f3f25…0ae7 | ||
| Patrick Vallance | 2026-12-31 | 2.6% | — | $510 | C | 0x6156e5…a4e2 | ||
| Peter Kyle | 2026-12-31 | 2.4% | — | $513 | C | 0x0d7db8…e7f5 | ||
| Hilary Benn | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x1128c6…f8ec | ||
| James Murray | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $535 | $4.8K | C | 0x2b2a59…5bfe | ||
| Darren Jones | 2026-12-31 | 0.9% | — | $3.8K | C | 0x9f1c21…f17a | ||
| Ian Murray | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $206 | $1.1K | C | 0x26b844…bb83 | ||
| Jo Stevens | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $20 | $4.7K | C | 0x59e9c0…2084 | ||
| Keir Starmer | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | — | $7.0K | C | 0x6aa17d…feab | ||
| David Lammy | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | — | $1.5K | C | 0x6f1e55…c849 | ||
| Steve Reed | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $1.1K | C | 0x9f04e7…dd70 | ||
| Dan Jarvis | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $4.9K | C | 0x8a94b7…c887 | ||
| Jacqui Smith | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $1.3K | C | 0x0bb0db…d8a3 | ||
| Rachel Reeves | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $30 | $10K | C | 0x0d7ceb…a0f4 | ||
| Jess Phillips | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $204 | $8.1K | C | 0x51aa78…7a64 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is confirmed as a minister in the Cabinet of the United Kingdom formed as a result of Andy Burnham being appointed Prime Minister. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
To qualify, the individual must be appointed or reappointed to a cabinet position by the United Kingdom Monarch in the period between the official appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister of the UK and the seventh day thereafter, 11:59 PM UTC. If the individual will continue to serve in a preexisting cabinet position without an explicit reappointment, their continuance in the Burnham cabinet must be confirmed by an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the specified timeframe to qualify.
Any interim or caretaker cabinet position will not count toward the resolution of this market.
To qualify, the listed individual must be appointed to a cabinet minister position. The position of an ordinary minister who also attends cabinet meetings, or any other unpaid ministerial position will not be considered for resolution.
If Andy Burnham is not appointed as Prime Minister of the UK by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the Government of the United Kingdom from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-be-in-the-burnham-cabinet-20260623004532614/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-be-in-the-burnham-cabinet-20260623004532614 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-be-in-the-burnham-cabinet-20260623004532614") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6PCRBL7TX9",
"slug": "who-will-be-in-the-burnham-cabinet-20260623004532614",
"question": "Will Keir Starmer be Prime Minister and form a cabinet by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"uk-politics",
"cabinet-formation",
"burnham-government",
"labour-cabinet",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 159343,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Government of the United Kingdom",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}