Will Keir Starmer be Prime Minister and form a cabinet by 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $8.7K | C | 0x1148ba…a3a7 | ||
| Wes Streeting | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $9.4K | C | 0x907b30…3c40 | ||
| Yvette Cooper | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $11K | C | 0x396fce…ebe5 | ||
| Shabana Mahmood | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $2.1K | C | 0xf1b94c…4da5 | ||
| Pat McFadden | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $1.3K | C | 0x523082…3ffc | ||
| Bridget Phillipson | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $22K | C | 0x077ec2…a8fa | ||
| Ed Miliband | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $8.0K | C | 0xf8682f…978b | ||
| Lisa Nandy | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $8.5K | C | 0x9660bf…0721 | ||
| Heidi Alexander | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $9.8K | C | 0xf1efcf…1c52 | ||
| Jonathan Reynolds | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $4.0K | C | 0xfc0943…ff86 | ||
| Alan Campbell | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $7.2K | C | 0x3d621d…f1ca | ||
| John Healey | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $2.4K | C | 0x9f8895…ec2d | ||
| Louise Haigh | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $3.6K | C | 0x5712d7…ec82 | ||
| Catherine West | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $15 | $7.4K | C | 0x3f3f25…0ae7 | ||
| Keir Starmer | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $7.0K | C | 0x6aa17d…feab | ||
| Rachel Reeves | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $30 | $10K | C | 0x0d7ceb…a0f4 | ||
| David Lammy | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.5K | C | 0x6f1e55…c849 | ||
| Darren Jones | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $3.8K | C | 0x9f1c21…f17a | ||
| Steve Reed | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.1K | C | 0x9f04e7…dd70 | ||
| James Murray | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $535 | $4.8K | C | 0x2b2a59…5bfe | ||
| Dan Jarvis | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $4.9K | C | 0x8a94b7…c887 | ||
| Liz Kendall | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $2.2K | C | 0x890fd9…a2e1 | ||
| Peter Kyle | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $513 | C | 0x0d7db8…e7f5 | ||
| Hilary Benn | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x1128c6…f8ec | ||
| Ian Murray | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $206 | $1.1K | C | 0x26b844…bb83 | ||
| Jo Stevens | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $20 | $4.7K | C | 0x59e9c0…2084 | ||
| Jacqui Smith | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.3K | C | 0x0bb0db…d8a3 | ||
| Patrick Vallance | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $510 | C | 0x6156e5…a4e2 | ||
| Jess Phillips | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $204 | $8.1K | C | 0x51aa78…7a64 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is confirmed as a minister in the Cabinet of the United Kingdom formed as a result of Andy Burnham being appointed Prime Minister. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
To qualify, the individual must be appointed or reappointed to a cabinet position by the United Kingdom Monarch in the period between the official appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister of the UK and the seventh day thereafter, 11:59 PM UTC. If the individual will continue to serve in a preexisting cabinet position without an explicit reappointment, their continuance in the Burnham cabinet must be confirmed by an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the specified timeframe to qualify.
Any interim or caretaker cabinet position will not count toward the resolution of this market.
To qualify, the listed individual must be appointed to a cabinet minister position. The position of an ordinary minister who also attends cabinet meetings, or any other unpaid ministerial position will not be considered for resolution.
If Andy Burnham is not appointed as Prime Minister of the UK by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from the Government of the United Kingdom from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Patrick Vallance be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will David Lammy be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Liz Kendall be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Reed be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Peter Kyle be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ian Murray be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jacqui Smith be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Keir Starmer be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jo Stevens be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Hilary Benn be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jess Phillips be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-28 | 0% |
| YES | Will Bridget Phillipson be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-21 | 100% |
| YES | Will Heidi Alexander be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-21 | 100% |
| YES | Will Alan Campbell be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-21 | 100% |
| YES | Will Jonathan Reynolds be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-21 | 100% |
| YES | Will Angela Rayner be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-21 | 100% |
| YES | Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-21 | 100% |
| YES | Will Lisa Nandy be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-21 | 100% |
| YES | Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-20 | 100% |
| YES | Will Pat McFadden be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-20 | 100% |
| YES | Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-20 | 100% |
| YES | Will John Healey be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-20 | 100% |
| YES | Will Shabana Mahmood be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-20 | 100% |
| YES | Will Louise Haigh be in the Burnham cabinet? | polymarket | 2026-07-20 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (29 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-be-in-the-burnham-cabinet-20260623004532614/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-be-in-the-burnham-cabinet-20260623004532614 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-be-in-the-burnham-cabinet-20260623004532614") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6PCRBL7TX9",
"slug": "who-will-be-in-the-burnham-cabinet-20260623004532614",
"question": "Will Keir Starmer be Prime Minister and form a cabinet by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"uk-politics",
"cabinet-formation",
"burnham-government",
"labour-cabinet",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 159343,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Government of the United Kingdom",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}