Will a Democratic candidate win the NY-12 primary election? [ resolved 2026-06-23 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 19 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Lasher | 2026-06-23 | 100.0% | $67 | $19K | C | 0x3ff129…fc10 | ||
| Jack Schlossberg | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | $303 | $13K | C | 0xd42612…01ae | ||
| Alex Bores | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | $1 | $9.3K | C | 0x1af009…4265 | ||
| Erik Bottcher | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $5.0K | C | 0x19aaba…2006 | ||
| Carolyn Maloney | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $5.3K | C | 0x1a42c8…dc6e | ||
| Andrew Cuomo | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $4.8K | C | 0xc86065…b0eb | ||
| Brad Hoylman-Sigal | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $7.9K | C | 0xd9f75a…ff51 | ||
| Keith Powers | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $6.2K | C | 0xc38a6c…b93a | ||
| Gale Brewer | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $4.8K | C | 0xaeee4a…c3ad | ||
| Brad Lander | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $82K | C | 0x259afd…7b7d | ||
| Cameron Kasky | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $6.0K | C | 0x74d26f…e6ad | ||
| Lina Khan | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $41K | C | 0x06008a…0319 | ||
| Julie Menin | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $26K | C | 0xc8aeb7…19c5 | ||
| Chelsea Clinton | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $11K | C | 0x148c43…e343 | ||
| Liam Elkind | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $4.9K | C | 0x34b4e1…d201 | ||
| Scott Stringer | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $59K | C | 0xd14144…7a65 | ||
| Liz Krueger | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $59K | C | 0xd8463b…ff4f | ||
| Cynthia Nixon | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $4.3K | C | 0x526d39…c201 | ||
| George Conway | 2026-06-23 | 0.0% | — | $4.3K | C | 0xd1dcc9…9b45 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Erik Bottcher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Carolyn Maloney be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Andrew Cuomo be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Brad Hoylman-Sigal be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Keith Powers be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gale Brewer be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Brad Lander be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| YES | Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 100% |
| NO | Will Cameron Kasky be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Lina Khan be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Julie Menin be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chelsea Clinton be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Liam Elkind be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Scott Stringer be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Liz Krueger be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Cynthia Nixon be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will George Conway be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (19 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-12/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-12 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-12") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0KS81K9P30",
"slug": "who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-12",
"question": "Will a Democratic candidate win the NY-12 primary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"ny-12",
"democratic-primary",
"2026",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 19,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 372907,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://democrats.org/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}