Who will be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No one | 2026-12-31 | 46.7% | $27 | $5.7K | C | 0x50f740…1168 | ||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $339 | $16K | C | 0x2f0b77…a494 | ||
| Chris Wright be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 5.9% | — | $710 | C | 0x3b815e…f5f1 | ||
| Susie Wiles be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 2.7% | $170 | $3.4K | C | 0x3a11b6…7c51 | ||
| J.D. Vance be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 1.3% | — | $581 | C | 0xd770bf…4308 | ||
| Doug Collins be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 1.1% | — | $506 | C | 0xa3a946…5fc1 | ||
| Kelly Loeffler be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 1.1% | — | $756 | C | 0x983984…abef | ||
| Scott Bessent be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.9% | — | $1.1K | C | 0x1afe06…9155 | ||
| Linda McMahon be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | — | $847 | C | 0xc70689…566c | ||
| Pete Hegseth be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | — | $939 | C | 0x1178bf…1d08 | ||
| Brooke Rollins be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | — | $670 | C | 0x9d9a09…ea6a | ||
| Sean Duffy be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | — | $561 | C | 0xd50e43…20a2 | ||
| Lee Zeldin be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | — | $413 | C | 0xb6fe94…1fb4 | ||
| Howard Lutnick be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | — | $737 | C | 0x387ac8…adf8 | ||
| Doug Burgum be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $754 | C | 0xf51a07…85b1 | ||
| Scott Turner be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $351 | C | 0x93bf03…7c23 | ||
| John Ratcliffe be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $517 | C | 0xc57f32…3666 | ||
| Marco Rubio be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $498 | C | 0xc89365…eabe | ||
| Russell T. Vought be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $473 | C | 0x5e702b…9e80 | ||
| Jamieson Greer be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $478 | C | 0x003727…2d7a | ||
| Mike Waltz be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $518 | C | 0x67ff53…4fce | ||
| Person A be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf872de…5886 | ||
| Person B be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0fdc58…8439 | ||
| Person C be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x055b78…033a | ||
| Person D be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xba5785…e6f0 | ||
| Person E be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x92b0a7…fd87 | ||
| Person F be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x93eaaa…92d9 | ||
| Person G be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4f20bc…851d | ||
| Another individual (Other) be the next to | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9e5c20…20f9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the Trump administration from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reopening from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-474/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-474 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-474") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B60Q08CR88",
"slug": "who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-474",
"question": "Who will be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"cabinet-turnover",
"us-government",
"personnel-changes",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 36820,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Trump administration",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reopening",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}