Will someone enter Iran by June 30? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 3.0% | $50 | $89K | C | 0x584c97…06be | ||
| Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 2.9% | — | $22K | C | 0xb7c3eb…61d8 | ||
| Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 2.2% | — | $31K | C | 0xaa2d85…007d | ||
| Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 2.1% | $102 | $16K | C | 0x9c9c61…f783 | ||
| Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 1.5% | — | $33K | C | 0x77eafa…e57a | ||
| Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.7% | $284 | $95K | C | 0x805901…e9eb | ||
| Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.6% | $1 | $70K | C | 0x52f23b…f2b5 | ||
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.4% | $236 | $46K | C | 0x83f38b…fcf7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-enter-iran-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-enter-iran-by-june-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-enter-iran-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QF15YF74T9",
"slug": "who-will-enter-iran-by-june-30",
"question": "Will someone enter Iran by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"travel",
"political-figures",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 401270,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 41,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}