Will someone enter Iran by June 30? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $49K | C | 0x83f38b…fcf7 | ||
| Pete Hegseth | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $60 | $97K | C | 0x805901…e9eb | ||
| Any U.S. House member | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $573 | $92K | C | 0x584c97…06be | ||
| Any U.S. Senator | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $31K | C | 0xaa2d85…007d | ||
| JD Vance | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $3.1K | $36K | C | 0x77eafa…e57a | ||
| Marco Rubio | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $23K | C | 0xb7c3eb…61d8 | ||
| Donald Trump | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $71K | C | 0x52f23b…f2b5 | ||
| Jared Kushner | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $16K | C | 0x9c9c61…f783 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (8 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Traders defend the zero on Kushner entering Iran by June 30 0% · $247K 24h
- Polymarket holds Kushner entering Iran at 0% probability before June 30 deadline.
- $247K in 24h is 28% of all-time volume, meaningful flow into a contract priced at zero.
- Back-channel Iran diplomacy reports may be triggering speculative buying; sellers are absorbing all comers.
- Resolves June 30; zero price implies consensus that any Kushner Iran visit remains beyond near-term horizon.
- Markets write off Netanyahu entering Iran by June 30 0% · $4.9M 24h
- Polymarket prices zero probability Netanyahu physically enters Iran before June 30.
- $4.9M traded in 24h, 40% of all-time volume floods in two days before deadline.
- Ceasefire-adjacent diplomacy and Iran nuclear talks keep contract alive; capital piles in to sell the tail.
- Resolves June 30; near-certain NO locks in barring an extraordinary geopolitical rupture.
- Traders write off a Vance Iran entry by June 30 0% · $751K 24h
- Polymarket prices zero probability, market treats the scenario as expired fiction.
- 29% of all-time volume, $751K in 24h, signals a final flush of residual longs.
- Three days to deadline with no diplomatic groundwork; attention spike likely confirms closure.
- Contract resolves June 30, zero price means capital is collecting, not wagering.
- Heavy flows defend the 'No' on Vance entering Iran by June 30 0% · $733K 24h
- Price sits at 0%, market assigns no realistic chance of entry before June 30.
- $733K in 24h is 28% of all-time volume, the largest single-day print on this contract.
- Parallel surge alongside Kushner contract suggests coordinated diplomatic-risk positioning.
- June 30 hard deadline; resolution imminent with three calendar days remaining.
- Traders write off Kushner entering Iran by June 30 0% · $417K 24h
- Market prices zero probability, no credible pathway seen before June 30.
- $417K traded in 24h, equal to 67% of the contract's entire all-time volume.
- Three days to deadline; late capital flooding in to lock in the 'No' at zero cost.
- Resolves June 30, sellers absorbing any residual speculative long interest.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-enter-iran-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-enter-iran-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-enter-iran-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QF15YF74T9",
"slug": "who-will-enter-iran-by-june-30",
"question": "Will someone enter Iran by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"travel",
"political-figures",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 415948,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 41,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}