Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $5.1K | C | 0x4e3fa0…7309 | ||
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $365K | C | 0x79e008…628a | ||
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $101K | C | 0x4f0f48…dd64 | ||
| Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $7.1K | C | 0x8ac414…04e8 | ||
| Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 59.0% | — | $29K | C | 0xa9eb38…d2d3 | ||
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 55.0% | $463 | $277K | C | 0xde2be5…badf | ||
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 50.6% | $311 | $93K | C | 0xc37f85…a8fd | ||
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 47.0% | $1.4K | $82K | C | 0x6eb866…8483 | ||
| Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 46.0% | $15 | $65 | C | 0x133cb0…6cd1 | ||
| Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 43.0% | — | $108 | C | 0xaaf71e…1127 | ||
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 37.0% | $203 | $7.8K | C | 0x41e7c2…d98d | ||
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 36.0% | $272 | $36K | C | 0x1960b1…bcb6 | ||
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 31.0% | $1 | $82K | C | 0xeae757…f461 | ||
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 27.0% | — | $48K | C | 0xa8ce9e…90be | ||
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 27.0% | $7 | $70K | C | 0xbb0d24…560f | ||
| Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 25.0% | $1 | $1.3K | C | 0x8e2c84…5b60 | ||
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 17.0% | $2 | $1.6K | C | 0xe51901…8eda | ||
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | $393 | $9.5K | C | 0x48a3e9…b08a | ||
| Will Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $150 | C | 0xa2df57…ec27 | ||
| Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $187 | C | 0xc3bbe4…8213 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
"slug": "who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
"question": "Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"politics",
"administration-turnover",
"us-government",
"personnel-changes",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1214015,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}